5 ms·

I see hindsight bias lurking. Now we see it as a "waste," but I dare you to make and publicly post predictions about a bunch of startups, and prove you are mor

I see hindsight bias lurking. Now we see it as a "waste," but I dare you to make and publicly post predictions about a bunch of startups, and prove you are more accurate than VCs.

jksmith 9y ago
Happy to take on the challenge. Two recent investments involve a "Mindfulness" app and an even better coffee machine. Guess who made those investments, while I wouldn't have touched them with a 10 foot pole? They're sophomoric ideas that offer little in the way of fundamentals. Where's the compelling drive to grow an industry? Where's the compelling argument for making money with a real capitalizeable asset? How do these projects fundamentally grow an area of the economy, put people to work, so they will want to buy these things. make life better and make investors more money? This kid is what we should be investing in: https://qz.com/909614/a-cameroonian-17-year-old-won-the-google-code-in-after-the-internet-was-shut-down-in-his-hometown-of-bamenda/ https://qz.com/909614/a-cameroonian-17-year-old-won-the-goog... Putting this kid to work is what we should be doing, not goofing around with some stupid ass Mindfulness app in SF. This is exactly the plan I'm working on. If somebody doesn't scoop this kid up, I will at some point. Africa and South America each represent 6% of the world's app revenue. You want to make some money? Help these continents compete. Help the governments involved learn how to manage their information and build out their IT infrastructure. Help bright kids like the one I linked to use their talents to help you make money and grow their local economies at the same time. That's what I'm interested in. If vc's in the US have been reduced to investing in yet another goddam coffee machine to sell to the US market, then I'd suggest silicon valley has exhausted their strategic thinking, and have been reduced to daddy and friends giving college grad something to do. It's a waste of money that could be so much more strategically spent.
- otterley 9y ago
  Which African countries have both great untapped talent and aren't hopelessly mired in corruption or violence and have a strong western-style legal framework? Those will be the ones that VCs feel safest investing in. Until they are identified, I don't think VCs will put their money at risk. (They may already exist; I'm pleading ignorance here.)
  - Grue3 9y ago
    >I don't think VCs will put their money at risk. They're already putting money at risk by investing in startups that are obvious flops. Or even startups that do stuff that won't fly even with western-style legal framework (Theranos).
    - otterley 9y ago
      Of course, but in the West, the flops are due to business failures. I'm referring to systemic risk, where you lose your money due to corruption and graft, often before it even gets into the hands of the venture.
      - owebmaster 9y ago
        The VCs behind Theranos lost their money due to corruption.
  - gspetr 9y ago
    You are correct saying that Africa has it's share of problems, but I don't think they are insurmountable. You might want to take a look at this project: https://www.kountable.com/ https://www.kountable.com/ I'm quite proud that I once was a part of the team working on it.
- Bakary 9y ago
  What's stopping you from scooping up that kid right now?
- majani 9y ago
  What if that African kid comes up with a "bullshit" idea that's profitable? e.g sports betting, USSD rebill, celebrity gossip etc, which are all billion dollar niches in Africa. Would you still fund him in that case?
  - jksmith 9y ago
    Realistically, what investor would even notice him at this point? How's he going to get in the door to pitch his idea? What we should try to do is invest in opportunities that get them to the point when they can take a stab at building a startup around whatever they come up with.

I see hindsight bias lurking. Now we see it as a "waste," but I dare you to make and publicly post predictions about a bunch of startups, and prove you are more accurate than VCs.

jksmith 9y ago

Happy to take on the challenge. Two recent investments involve a "Mindfulness" app and an even better coffee machine. Guess who made those investments, while I wouldn't have touched them with a 10 foot pole? They're sophomoric ideas that offer little in the way of fundamentals. Where's the compelling drive to grow an industry? Where's the compelling argument for making money with a real capitalizeable asset? How do these projects fundamentally grow an area of the economy, put people to work, so they will want to buy these things. make life better and make investors more money? This kid is what we should be investing in: https://qz.com/909614/a-cameroonian-17-year-old-won-the-google-code-in-after-the-internet-was-shut-down-in-his-hometown-of-bamenda/ https://qz.com/909614/a-cameroonian-17-year-old-won-the-goog... Putting this kid to work is what we should be doing, not goofing around with some stupid ass Mindfulness app in SF. This is exactly the plan I'm working on. If somebody doesn't scoop this kid up, I will at some point. Africa and South America each represent 6% of the world's app revenue. You want to make some money? Help these continents compete. Help the governments involved learn how to manage their information and build out their IT infrastructure. Help bright kids like the one I linked to use their talents to help you make money and grow their local economies at the same time. That's what I'm interested in. If vc's in the US have been reduced to investing in yet another goddam coffee machine to sell to the US market, then I'd suggest silicon valley has exhausted their strategic thinking, and have been reduced to daddy and friends giving college grad something to do. It's a waste of money that could be so much more strategically spent.

otterley 9y ago
Which African countries have both great untapped talent and aren't hopelessly mired in corruption or violence and have a strong western-style legal framework? Those will be the ones that VCs feel safest investing in. Until they are identified, I don't think VCs will put their money at risk. (They may already exist; I'm pleading ignorance here.)
- Grue3 9y ago
  >I don't think VCs will put their money at risk. They're already putting money at risk by investing in startups that are obvious flops. Or even startups that do stuff that won't fly even with western-style legal framework (Theranos).
  - otterley 9y ago
    Of course, but in the West, the flops are due to business failures. I'm referring to systemic risk, where you lose your money due to corruption and graft, often before it even gets into the hands of the venture.
    - owebmaster 9y ago
      The VCs behind Theranos lost their money due to corruption.
- gspetr 9y ago
  You are correct saying that Africa has it's share of problems, but I don't think they are insurmountable. You might want to take a look at this project: https://www.kountable.com/ https://www.kountable.com/ I'm quite proud that I once was a part of the team working on it.
Bakary 9y ago
What's stopping you from scooping up that kid right now?
majani 9y ago
What if that African kid comes up with a "bullshit" idea that's profitable? e.g sports betting, USSD rebill, celebrity gossip etc, which are all billion dollar niches in Africa. Would you still fund him in that case?
- jksmith 9y ago
  Realistically, what investor would even notice him at this point? How's he going to get in the door to pitch his idea? What we should try to do is invest in opportunities that get them to the point when they can take a stab at building a startup around whatever they come up with.