5 ms·

Yeah, absolutely. 5th Gear covered this extremely well using Volvo, who are world famous for their safety emphasis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emtLLvXrrFs

Yeah, absolutely. 5th Gear covered this extremely well using Volvo, who are world famous for their safety emphasis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emtLLvXrrFs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emtLLvXrrFs 10 years from now all new car's will probably self driving.

jzwinck 9y ago
I will bet against you here and now. In July 2027, I bet at least 5% of new cars sold in the US will not have full self-driving capability. Meaning they will be unable to drive between two arbitrary street addresses in the US without a licensed human operator.
- legolas2412 9y ago
  If you're betting against driving between two arbitrary street addresses, I'll bet that there won't be a single capable car.
  - gefh 9y ago
    Using towns in northern Alaska not connected to the main graph is cheating! :)
- sdenton4 9y ago
  So your being that we'll have at most 95% self driving cars in ten years? That seems uncontroversial... Unless there's a law banning human driven cars by then, I would expect to see that level of ownership just from the people who like the act of driving cars.
petepete 9y ago
Well, I'd have put money on the Volvo coming out better. Thanks for the link.
jnwatson 9y ago
That video is from 2009. I'd argue that mechanical safety innovation has slowed quite a bit in the last eight years. The real question is whether the recent electronic safety features: backup cameras, lane departure, blind spot warnings are worth the new car premium.
- F2 9y ago
  Not sure what you mean by "mechanical safety" but in addition to advances in energy dissipating crash structures, the use of advanced and high strength steels has risen dramatically in the past couple years.
Retric 9y ago
That's an 22+ year old Volvo without airbags. "Volvo was the first to introduce side airbags and installed them as standard equipment in all models from 1995." First 940 was produced in 1990 so it could be 27 years old. PS: That Moderate overlap / frontal offset test configuration is relatively recent in crash testing. http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/frontal-crash-tests http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/frontal-crash-...
saiya-jin 9y ago
you are wrong - this is a video of a car manufactured in +-1990 - that is 27 years ago. I agree in last 30 years we've made quite a progress on safety, but 10 year old car these days means something like BMW E90 (or any equivalent) and safety progress from there is minimal. considering release cycles of car manufacturers, in 10 years at least 80-90% of the cars on the roads will be usual cars, not much change there. no politician will ever have the balls to force majority of their voters into buying new expensive cars. it will come, but it will take longer than you expect, that's all
tbihl 9y ago
But that's a 30-year old Volvo, no? In 2017, buying a 10 year old car would mean getting that Renault.

jzwinck 9y ago

I will bet against you here and now. In July 2027, I bet at least 5% of new cars sold in the US will not have full self-driving capability. Meaning they will be unable to drive between two arbitrary street addresses in the US without a licensed human operator.

legolas2412 9y ago
If you're betting against driving between two arbitrary street addresses, I'll bet that there won't be a single capable car.
- gefh 9y ago
  Using towns in northern Alaska not connected to the main graph is cheating! :)
sdenton4 9y ago
So your being that we'll have at most 95% self driving cars in ten years? That seems uncontroversial... Unless there's a law banning human driven cars by then, I would expect to see that level of ownership just from the people who like the act of driving cars.

petepete 9y ago

Well, I'd have put money on the Volvo coming out better. Thanks for the link.

jnwatson 9y ago

That video is from 2009. I'd argue that mechanical safety innovation has slowed quite a bit in the last eight years. The real question is whether the recent electronic safety features: backup cameras, lane departure, blind spot warnings are worth the new car premium.

F2 9y ago
Not sure what you mean by "mechanical safety" but in addition to advances in energy dissipating crash structures, the use of advanced and high strength steels has risen dramatically in the past couple years.

Retric 9y ago

That's an 22+ year old Volvo without airbags. "Volvo was the first to introduce side airbags and installed them as standard equipment in all models from 1995." First 940 was produced in 1990 so it could be 27 years old. PS: That Moderate overlap / frontal offset test configuration is relatively recent in crash testing. http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/frontal-crash-tests http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/frontal-crash-...

saiya-jin 9y ago

you are wrong - this is a video of a car manufactured in +-1990 - that is 27 years ago. I agree in last 30 years we've made quite a progress on safety, but 10 year old car these days means something like BMW E90 (or any equivalent) and safety progress from there is minimal. considering release cycles of car manufacturers, in 10 years at least 80-90% of the cars on the roads will be usual cars, not much change there. no politician will ever have the balls to force majority of their voters into buying new expensive cars. it will come, but it will take longer than you expect, that's all

tbihl 9y ago

But that's a 30-year old Volvo, no? In 2017, buying a 10 year old car would mean getting that Renault.