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Fundamental flaw: If you can't predict a Black Swan how can you attract one?
by tjmaxal 16y ago
Fundamental flaw: If you can't predict a Black Swan how can you attract one?
- jackv 16y agoIt's not about prediction, it's about odds. If you don't know the outcome it's better to have 200 possibilities than 1 "great idea."
- zackattack 16y agoLook for things with fixed downside but unlimited upside. The opposite of this was LTCM's strategy of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller; NNT trolls Robert Merton throughout the book
- SkyMarshal 16y agoYou can't predict any particular black swan, but you know they happen and you can attempt exploit the odds of it. Which is what Ycombinator, and any VC company for that matter, does.
- kjhughes 16y agoThe article mentions that Taleb believes the randomness of Black Swans is merely an appearance resulting from the lack of information. More information -- better information -- can improve predictions. Besides, Alan Kay would suggest that the best way to predict the Black Swan would be to invent the Black Swan.