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So basically we are transitioning from a fossil energy based world to lithium based one. Why does media never talk about the sustainability of build lithium ion

So basically we are transitioning from a fossil energy based world to lithium based one. Why does media never talk about the sustainability of build lithium ion batteries at large scale? Have the recycling problem been sorted out (I have a couple of lithium ion batteries and I don't know what to do about them) I also heard that lithium is very very scarce on Earth.

pavlov 9y ago
Seems like there is plenty of lithium, but mines are not keeping up with demand. Here's an interesting story from FT about Chile's lithium mines, with pictures: https://www.ft.com/content/cde8f984-43c7-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d https://www.ft.com/content/cde8f984-43c7-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c... (You may need to Google for the title to bypass paywall: "Lithium: Chile’s buried treasure")
- greglindahl 9y ago
  It takes time to construct new mines. When Tesla started building the gigafactory, they signed long-term contracts with companies building new mines in the US and Mexico.
calafrax 9y ago
What are you a denier? Once we have consensus that means we shut off debate and stop doing economic analysis. Get with the program buddy.
- zyngaro 9y ago
  Not a denier. Global warming is a fact regardless of what is causing it. Phasing out fossil fuels is a first step for more innovation in how we produce and consume energy.
  - calafrax 9y ago
    Sorry, I was just making fun of the tendency for commercially interested parties to push their products as energy solutions while not asking the kinds of questions that you are.
    - zyngaro 9y ago
      I got that. No problem :)
- sctb 9y ago
  Please stop posting like this and re-read the guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
WJW 9y ago
It's not talked about in "the media" (at least not front page stuff) because it is not a huge problem. While "scarce" is relative, global demand until the year 2100 is estimated to be between 12 and 20 million tons, while currently known reserves are about 39 million tons. So we should be good for at least 80 years. Recycling is also a solved problem, though we'll have to build a few more factories to keep up with the increased amount. Note that eventually, graphene based energy storage may take over anyway. Or possibly someone will invent proper hydrogen storage. Finally, you could easily have found multiple studies by respected universities about the estimated amount of lithium on Earth, about the feasability of large scale recycling of Li-ion batteries and about transitioning into a lithium-based economy. If you are willing to take advice, reading up first before become alarmed and posting concerned comments will help a lot for your peace of mind.
- philipov 9y ago
  What crystal ball are they using to predict the future out for 80 years? Are they making the assumption that there will be no technological paradigm shifts and demand growth will continue along current levels? Do they factor in the effects of climate change and global instability? If you use an estimate of demand to justify increasing demand, you immediately, tautologically invalidate the estimate: the estimate did not account for your policy decisions based on itself.
  - WJW 9y ago
    If you want to know which assumptions they made, why not just read the studies and see for yourself? To be sure, predicting the future is super difficult. If we have a global thermonuclear war in 2020, we will probably not need any tons of lithium at all, what with everyone being dead. Same thing if we get hit by a really large asteroid, etc. Also if someone ever develops man-portable fusion reactors we might not need batteries at all. :) Your point about the self fulfilling aspect of basing policy on research is well taken, though in this case the researchers used multiple scenarios for policy development, including one where lithium demand is heavily stimulated by eg subsidies on EVs and the like. That is the upper part of the range of 12-20 million tons of demand, which is still well below the lower bound of estimated reserves.
maxerickson 9y ago
Between sodium ion batteries and flow batteries, we aren't likely to end up dependent on lithium. Sodium ion aren't really commercialized yet but the cost implications provide a whole lot of motivation to figure it out.
FullMtlAlcoholc 9y ago
Hopefully, we'll be mining asteroids by the time lithium scarcity becomes a problem
greglindahl 9y ago
I've seen the media talk about the sustainability of lithium ion batteries at scale.

pavlov 9y ago

Seems like there is plenty of lithium, but mines are not keeping up with demand. Here's an interesting story from FT about Chile's lithium mines, with pictures: https://www.ft.com/content/cde8f984-43c7-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d https://www.ft.com/content/cde8f984-43c7-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c... (You may need to Google for the title to bypass paywall: "Lithium: Chile’s buried treasure")

greglindahl 9y ago
It takes time to construct new mines. When Tesla started building the gigafactory, they signed long-term contracts with companies building new mines in the US and Mexico.

calafrax 9y ago

What are you a denier? Once we have consensus that means we shut off debate and stop doing economic analysis. Get with the program buddy.

zyngaro 9y ago
Not a denier. Global warming is a fact regardless of what is causing it. Phasing out fossil fuels is a first step for more innovation in how we produce and consume energy.
- calafrax 9y ago
  Sorry, I was just making fun of the tendency for commercially interested parties to push their products as energy solutions while not asking the kinds of questions that you are.
  - zyngaro 9y ago
    I got that. No problem :)
sctb 9y ago
Please stop posting like this and re-read the guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

WJW 9y ago

It's not talked about in "the media" (at least not front page stuff) because it is not a huge problem. While "scarce" is relative, global demand until the year 2100 is estimated to be between 12 and 20 million tons, while currently known reserves are about 39 million tons. So we should be good for at least 80 years. Recycling is also a solved problem, though we'll have to build a few more factories to keep up with the increased amount. Note that eventually, graphene based energy storage may take over anyway. Or possibly someone will invent proper hydrogen storage. Finally, you could easily have found multiple studies by respected universities about the estimated amount of lithium on Earth, about the feasability of large scale recycling of Li-ion batteries and about transitioning into a lithium-based economy. If you are willing to take advice, reading up first before become alarmed and posting concerned comments will help a lot for your peace of mind.

philipov 9y ago
What crystal ball are they using to predict the future out for 80 years? Are they making the assumption that there will be no technological paradigm shifts and demand growth will continue along current levels? Do they factor in the effects of climate change and global instability? If you use an estimate of demand to justify increasing demand, you immediately, tautologically invalidate the estimate: the estimate did not account for your policy decisions based on itself.
- WJW 9y ago
  If you want to know which assumptions they made, why not just read the studies and see for yourself? To be sure, predicting the future is super difficult. If we have a global thermonuclear war in 2020, we will probably not need any tons of lithium at all, what with everyone being dead. Same thing if we get hit by a really large asteroid, etc. Also if someone ever develops man-portable fusion reactors we might not need batteries at all. :) Your point about the self fulfilling aspect of basing policy on research is well taken, though in this case the researchers used multiple scenarios for policy development, including one where lithium demand is heavily stimulated by eg subsidies on EVs and the like. That is the upper part of the range of 12-20 million tons of demand, which is still well below the lower bound of estimated reserves.

maxerickson 9y ago

Between sodium ion batteries and flow batteries, we aren't likely to end up dependent on lithium. Sodium ion aren't really commercialized yet but the cost implications provide a whole lot of motivation to figure it out.

FullMtlAlcoholc 9y ago

Hopefully, we'll be mining asteroids by the time lithium scarcity becomes a problem

greglindahl 9y ago

I've seen the media talk about the sustainability of lithium ion batteries at scale.