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For those curious, this article somewhat oversimplifies the situation. Coal is dying anyway. "Clean coal" generally refers to coal => gasification => carbon c
by chris_va 9y ago
For those curious, this article somewhat oversimplifies the situation.
Coal is dying anyway.
"Clean coal" generally refers to coal => gasification => carbon capture. This is possible, just more expensive than burning raw coal, which itself is now more expensive than natural gas.
Mostly because of fracking, at least in the US, natural gas is much cheaper than buying coal. Compounding that, renewable energy creates high flexibility in peak demand, so plants designed to operate as baseload sources cannot amortize costs as effectively.
Additionally, HVDC lines are making regional proximity less important, so gas/coal locality plays less of a role in pricing.
The market is shifting to peaker plants, like natural gas, which have very low capital costs and can turn on/off quickly. This kills of coal and nuclear anyway, which have to run 24/7 to stay cost competitive.
Barring some energy storage miracle, we'll eventually end up with ~35% renewables, 15% hydro, 50% natural gas in the US, with HVDC interconnect.
(source: climate and energy R&D group)
- xbmcuser 9y agoWith battery tech and solar panel efficiency improvements that we get every year I am of the opinion in 10-15 years even natural gas plants will not be competetive. I am talking about the tech articles we get every year but actual pannels and batteries that are delivered.
- maxerickson 9y agoI think it is pretty difficult to accurately project the adoption rates of those technologies (because most of the information we have is about adoption rates when they are marginally price competitive), but the current adoption rates don't have us with anywhere near enough solar deployed to stop using natural gas in 20 years. I guess you are talking more about whether it is a competitive investment, but if we aren't fully on solar the faster construction time and easier siting of natural gas plants will drive some investment (siting mostly in terms of land area/MW).