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a lottery is an absolutely horrible metaphor abuse. If you put $2 into buying a powerball ticket, you have a ~1:290 million chance at becoming a millionaire an
by elif 9y ago
a lottery is an absolutely horrible metaphor abuse.
If you put $2 into buying a powerball ticket, you have a ~1:290 million chance at becoming a millionaire and a ~1:50 chance at breaking even.
If you put $2 into bitcoin at any point in history and held for 2 years, you have a 0% chance at becoming a millionaire and a 100% chance at breaking even.
If you left $2 sitting in your wallet for 2 years, you lost $0.05-0.10 depending upon who you believe
- simias 9y ago>If you put $2 into bitcoin at any point in history and held for 2 years, you have a 0% chance at becoming a millionaire and a 100% chance at breaking even. That does not compute. What do you mean here exactly? Clearly if you invest $2 in BTC and the value of bitcoins increases 500,000% you're a millionaire. Conversely if it crashes and becomes worthless you've lost everything. But more generally I wasn't arguing statistics, just pointing out that it's just a big gamble, like the lottery. It's extremely difficult to predict the future of bitcoin so investing in it is not entirely unlike playing the lottery.
- clarky07 9y agoI believe he is referring to the past. The history so far is such that there haven't been many losing 2 year stretches. So far, it also hasn't gone up 500,000% in two years either. So, not nearly as risky as a lottery, and not quite the same upside either.
- sillysaurus3 9y agoThe risk is yourself, not the market. Losing your coins is equivalent to the market crashing to 0. And it's shockingly easy to completely lose your coins, even if you're not incompetent.