I can confirm this is actually happening. I occasionally attend somewhat narrow mini-conferences that used to be held in California, NYC etc. Just in the last

I can confirm this is actually happening. I occasionally attend somewhat narrow mini-conferences that used to be held in California, NYC etc. Just in the last 6 months none of those will be held in the US anymore since almost nobody from outside the US wants to travel to the US. And these people come from countries that are not on any list of dodgy countries. I would assume that for larger conferences the tendency won't be as strong, but it'll definitively be noticable. I also see this when doing business; when interacting with companies where face to face interaction is needed there is a tendency to avoid business that requires travel to the US. Either they come here or we find partners outside the US. I know of several concrete business deals that have been made with non-US companies for precisely this reason. It is tempting to think that this might end when the current administration ends, but it may not. The reason is that the last 6 months have demonstrated how volatile the policies can be in the US and how easily and quickly things can change for the worse. This affects long term planning. You don't want to make long term commitments when you have no faith in there being a moderating force to smooth out the more extreme forces acting on policy.