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One subtle question: how much of that is GDP change is growth, and how much is risk redistribution? Obviously communication efficiency has real advantages. Som
by Bartweiss 9y ago
One subtle question: how much of that is GDP change is growth, and how much is risk redistribution?
Obviously communication efficiency has real advantages. Some of what has been gained is lasting improvement. But humans have a nasty tendency to enforce order on chaotic systems and mistake legibility for growth. Everywhere from forest fires to housing prices, we create systems that delay, but concentrate, risk. Annual brushfires are extinguished, leading to decadal infernos. Credit default swaps enable high default lending at low risk, right up until they don't.
I'm darkly suspicious that many of the gains from communications technology, particularly in stock trading, fall into this category. They've allowed us to push concentrate and defer everyday risks, getting us growth over most time windows when the reality is that we've redistributed risk.