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In the case of natural gas power plants, aren't they (at least some of the time) built due to the need for 'peaker' plants? That is, if there's a sudden surge i

In the case of natural gas power plants, aren't they (at least some of the time) built due to the need for 'peaker' plants? That is, if there's a sudden surge in demand (which solar can't react to, for obvious reasons) or an unpredictable drop in solar output (e.g. a cloud moves in between California and the sun), gas plants can quickly fire up to cover the output gap (much quicker than, say, coal or nuclear). Wholesale electricity prices should naturally spike during these times as well. Demand is temporarily outpacing supply. That's the market in the very short-run, I guess. In the long run, I don't agree that we should 'listen to the market'. The market doesn't price in externalities like increased infrastructure costs (which are usually worn by taxpayers) or greenhouse gas emissions (a global negative externality) unless the government steps in to internalise these costs. I honestly don't know much about California's electricity market, but it seems like no one has been 'listening to the market' for quite some time now: https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/01/15/california-solar-subsidy-net-metering/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/01/15/california-... , http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/solarwater/index.php http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/solarwater/index.php , http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/about/nshp.php http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/about/nshp.php

jessaustin 9y ago
That's the story we hear occasionally, but according to TFA "starting and stopping natural gas plants is costlier and more difficult than shutting down [and, presumably, starting up] solar panels" so they just leave those running without regard to daily peaks. I'm not sure how we ever got sold on a technology with those characteristics being a good "peaker", but hey! utilities execs are good at their jobs, when their jobs are correctly understood to be screwing over the customer. Your anti-market bias is reversed in this case. The market [EDIT: for investments] doesn't want these new plants, because they're wasteful and bad for the environment. Therefore, they're bad investments that will only be made if the public is forced against its will to make them.
- spangry 9y ago
  Huh, well I definitely learned something today. As for anti-market biases, I suspect we might disagree on the definition of the phrase 'the market'. Admittedly, I mentally put the word 'free' in-front of the word 'market' when I hear it used without qualification. I feel like it's the only safe assumption to make. Otherwise, chances are, the regulated, distorted and interfered with market that I have in my head is very likely different to the one you have in yours. And unless we both explain what we mean exactly when we say 'the market', we're just kinda talking past each other.
  - jessaustin 9y ago
    No worries dude. It's cool to discuss, even if we don't agree. Markets may not be "free", but they can still function as we'd expect markets to function if there are multiple sellers and buyers. The market for utility bonds is like that, but the market for electricity often is not.
  - baq 9y ago
    Unfortunately the free market is a purely theoretical concept and a model not unlike Newtonian physics - useful, but incorrect.
- c517402 9y ago
  The turbines engines used for natural gas based electrical power production can be throttled up and down over a wide range. IIRC from maximum power down to about 15%. But, no you do not want to just shut them off. There are natural gas based diesel generators that can be turned on and off, but being Diesel engines they really only run efficiently over a small power output range and you control how much power is generated by how many you turn on. You need rows and rows of the Diesels to match the power from a gas turbine and each diesel needs to be individually matched into the power grid. So, there are reasons to go with gas turbine electrical power generation to meet peak power demands. OTOH, CA is tearing down recently built plants because of over capacity which is just crazy and obviously a boondoggle for the electric companies. But, building the plants was driven by the craziness that immediately preceded it; CA's NIMBY driven under capacity and being forced to meet peak power demands by buying outrageously priced power from out of state. Just bad planning, more bad planning, and certainly more bad planning to come.
  - jjt-yn_t 9y ago
    Informative post but unsure of the meaning of the latter part... not in favor here of the teardowns, vs reserve capacity, say if some new technology comes along which needs a greater amount of electricity, or, less hopefully likely, some caldera-type event which isolates the California grid from out-of-state stable backup power as well as a significant amount of the power it uses...
shagie 9y ago
That depends on the type of solar power. Yes, there's photovoltaic power - though you'll note that the article was talking about mirrors - mirrors heating up something. That something often has quite a bit of heat capacity. There are quite a few ways to store that thermal energy from solar ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_thermal_energy#Heat_storage_to_stabilize_solar-electric_power_generation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_thermal_energy#Heat_stor... ) The Ivanpah Solar Power mentioned in the article lacks any storage, but its possible to store steam - the PS10 plant ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS10_solar_power_plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS10_solar_power_plant ) stores its steam at 50 bar and 285 C for an hour. Its also possible to do molten salt ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_energy_storage#Molten_salt_technology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_energy_storage#Molten_... ) which can store its heat for up to a week. Solar Two used this in the Mojave back in the late 90s. The peaker plants aren't necessary when you can just grab some steam or other thermal energy from a tank and use that. Hydroelectric power ( http://www.energy.ca.gov/hydroelectric/ http://www.energy.ca.gov/hydroelectric/ ) also does a good job of being an instant on (recognizing the issue that California has had for the past few years with hydroelectric power...). From https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/20/the-high-stakes-math-behind-the-wests-greatest-river/#60d70148222b https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/20/the-high-s... > Each generator housing contains a 280-ton turbine that looks like a ship’s propeller and a 430-ton generator rotor that spin in perfect synchronization with the grid’s alternating current. As large as these generators are, they’re among the nimblest big sources of power available: Duffus can bring a turbine online in under two minutes and, once it’s running, can summon as much electricity from it as he needs in as little as ten seconds. Each 60-megawatt generator can produce enough electricity to supply roughly 60,000 households, but all of that capacity isn’t needed most of the time.

jessaustin 9y ago

That's the story we hear occasionally, but according to TFA "starting and stopping natural gas plants is costlier and more difficult than shutting down [and, presumably, starting up] solar panels" so they just leave those running without regard to daily peaks. I'm not sure how we ever got sold on a technology with those characteristics being a good "peaker", but hey! utilities execs are good at their jobs, when their jobs are correctly understood to be screwing over the customer. Your anti-market bias is reversed in this case. The market [EDIT: for investments] doesn't want these new plants, because they're wasteful and bad for the environment. Therefore, they're bad investments that will only be made if the public is forced against its will to make them.

spangry 9y ago
Huh, well I definitely learned something today. As for anti-market biases, I suspect we might disagree on the definition of the phrase 'the market'. Admittedly, I mentally put the word 'free' in-front of the word 'market' when I hear it used without qualification. I feel like it's the only safe assumption to make. Otherwise, chances are, the regulated, distorted and interfered with market that I have in my head is very likely different to the one you have in yours. And unless we both explain what we mean exactly when we say 'the market', we're just kinda talking past each other.
- jessaustin 9y ago
  No worries dude. It's cool to discuss, even if we don't agree. Markets may not be "free", but they can still function as we'd expect markets to function if there are multiple sellers and buyers. The market for utility bonds is like that, but the market for electricity often is not.
- baq 9y ago
  Unfortunately the free market is a purely theoretical concept and a model not unlike Newtonian physics - useful, but incorrect.
c517402 9y ago
The turbines engines used for natural gas based electrical power production can be throttled up and down over a wide range. IIRC from maximum power down to about 15%. But, no you do not want to just shut them off. There are natural gas based diesel generators that can be turned on and off, but being Diesel engines they really only run efficiently over a small power output range and you control how much power is generated by how many you turn on. You need rows and rows of the Diesels to match the power from a gas turbine and each diesel needs to be individually matched into the power grid. So, there are reasons to go with gas turbine electrical power generation to meet peak power demands. OTOH, CA is tearing down recently built plants because of over capacity which is just crazy and obviously a boondoggle for the electric companies. But, building the plants was driven by the craziness that immediately preceded it; CA's NIMBY driven under capacity and being forced to meet peak power demands by buying outrageously priced power from out of state. Just bad planning, more bad planning, and certainly more bad planning to come.
- jjt-yn_t 9y ago
  Informative post but unsure of the meaning of the latter part... not in favor here of the teardowns, vs reserve capacity, say if some new technology comes along which needs a greater amount of electricity, or, less hopefully likely, some caldera-type event which isolates the California grid from out-of-state stable backup power as well as a significant amount of the power it uses...

shagie 9y ago

That depends on the type of solar power. Yes, there's photovoltaic power - though you'll note that the article was talking about mirrors - mirrors heating up something. That something often has quite a bit of heat capacity. There are quite a few ways to store that thermal energy from solar ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_thermal_energy#Heat_storage_to_stabilize_solar-electric_power_generation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_thermal_energy#Heat_stor... ) The Ivanpah Solar Power mentioned in the article lacks any storage, but its possible to store steam - the PS10 plant ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS10_solar_power_plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS10_solar_power_plant ) stores its steam at 50 bar and 285 C for an hour. Its also possible to do molten salt ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_energy_storage#Molten_salt_technology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_energy_storage#Molten_... ) which can store its heat for up to a week. Solar Two used this in the Mojave back in the late 90s. The peaker plants aren't necessary when you can just grab some steam or other thermal energy from a tank and use that. Hydroelectric power ( http://www.energy.ca.gov/hydroelectric/ http://www.energy.ca.gov/hydroelectric/ ) also does a good job of being an instant on (recognizing the issue that California has had for the past few years with hydroelectric power...). From https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/20/the-high-stakes-math-behind-the-wests-greatest-river/#60d70148222b https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/20/the-high-s... > Each generator housing contains a 280-ton turbine that looks like a ship’s propeller and a 430-ton generator rotor that spin in perfect synchronization with the grid’s alternating current. As large as these generators are, they’re among the nimblest big sources of power available: Duffus can bring a turbine online in under two minutes and, once it’s running, can summon as much electricity from it as he needs in as little as ten seconds. Each 60-megawatt generator can produce enough electricity to supply roughly 60,000 households, but all of that capacity isn’t needed most of the time.