4 ms·

Although most trains are not autonomous, there are currently many more people being transported by autonomous trains than by autonomous cars, and it has been so

Although most trains are not autonomous, there are currently many more people being transported by autonomous trains than by autonomous cars, and it has been so for several years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_subway_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_...). I see what your point is regarding the convenience of using a car. What could be more convenient than leaving your house, getting in your car, then being dropped at your destination? But this doesn't take into account the cost of the entire infrastructure needed to make it work flawlessly. On the other hand, the train goes faster, and benefits from economies of scale. A tightly knit network of trains would beat a transport system made of autonomous cars.

kbenson 9y ago
IMO, the future is likely not individuals in their autonomous cars. It's a ubiquitous autonomous ad-hoc ride sharing network, which will features some of the good parts of trains and buses, and some of the good parts of Taxis or individual cars. Popular routes will likely be populated by lots of large vans and buses of various sizes, all autonomous, and there might be interchange points where you get dropped off for a minute or two before an autonomous car comes to pick you up for the last few miles. Other people might already be in that car and going the same direction, or be waiting for you. Once there's a critical mass of ridership, you can get some really efficient usage of the system, and route capacity as needed. I did some napkin math on this a while back[1]. It's interesting. 1: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13177836 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13177836
- cr0sh 9y ago
  > IMO, the future is likely not individuals in their autonomous cars. I think people will still want their own personal cars, because... > some of the good parts of trains and buses, and some of the good parts of Taxis ...they won't want to get the car with the drunk vomit urine and heavily graffitied and torn up interior. I can see how you could - via the hailing app or whatnot - send the car off as "undesired because XYZ" - and maybe it would go somewhere to get refurbed, but after a while, with so many refurbs, the companies will either give up, or they will make concessions (allowing for so much damage until it is deemed "needing repair" and cleaning it up as best as they can otherwise). People might also want personal cars as a quicker convenience, and also as a status symbol. There's also those who might want to ride around in a personalized custom car, much like people do today.
  - kbenson 9y ago
    > I think people will still want their own personal cars, because... I'm not making a case people won't have their own cars, I just think it will be less common, and extremely less common to have two or more for a family. > ..they won't want to get the car with the drunk vomit urine and heavily graffitied and torn up interior. It's not like you don't know who was in the car that caused the problem, and can't have the whole day recorded for proof. Charge a cleanup fee, include video as proof. If it requires immediate cleaning and must be pulled off the road, charge them for the average income for that time as well. If it's in the agreement for the ride, you can auto charge the account/card as well, since that's how they paid in the first place. I think that's plenty of incentive to cut down on people not treating your vehicles well because there's no driver to call them out. > People might also want personal cars as a quicker convenience, and also as a status symbol. Sure. For the same reason people buy $100k+ cars. That's a somewhat small segment of the market. > There's also those who might want to ride around in a personalized custom car, much like people do today. Insurance will likely start to make that expensive. Sure, it will happen, but I think it will be less common. It's already an expensive hobby.
  - icebraining 9y ago
    The cleanup problem really isn't, in my opinion. Riders get tracked in a way that's hard to avoid (since your account is tied to your CC), so when cars get sent off, the company can tag the previous passenger and identify outliers, who can then be forced to pay a surplus fee per ride, covering the extra costs.
posterboy 9y ago
If cars were to navigate on preset routes on streets in ideal conditions, the difference is small, unless you want to win races.

kbenson 9y ago

IMO, the future is likely not individuals in their autonomous cars. It's a ubiquitous autonomous ad-hoc ride sharing network, which will features some of the good parts of trains and buses, and some of the good parts of Taxis or individual cars. Popular routes will likely be populated by lots of large vans and buses of various sizes, all autonomous, and there might be interchange points where you get dropped off for a minute or two before an autonomous car comes to pick you up for the last few miles. Other people might already be in that car and going the same direction, or be waiting for you. Once there's a critical mass of ridership, you can get some really efficient usage of the system, and route capacity as needed. I did some napkin math on this a while back[1]. It's interesting. 1: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13177836 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13177836

cr0sh 9y ago
> IMO, the future is likely not individuals in their autonomous cars. I think people will still want their own personal cars, because... > some of the good parts of trains and buses, and some of the good parts of Taxis ...they won't want to get the car with the drunk vomit urine and heavily graffitied and torn up interior. I can see how you could - via the hailing app or whatnot - send the car off as "undesired because XYZ" - and maybe it would go somewhere to get refurbed, but after a while, with so many refurbs, the companies will either give up, or they will make concessions (allowing for so much damage until it is deemed "needing repair" and cleaning it up as best as they can otherwise). People might also want personal cars as a quicker convenience, and also as a status symbol. There's also those who might want to ride around in a personalized custom car, much like people do today.
- kbenson 9y ago
  > I think people will still want their own personal cars, because... I'm not making a case people won't have their own cars, I just think it will be less common, and extremely less common to have two or more for a family. > ..they won't want to get the car with the drunk vomit urine and heavily graffitied and torn up interior. It's not like you don't know who was in the car that caused the problem, and can't have the whole day recorded for proof. Charge a cleanup fee, include video as proof. If it requires immediate cleaning and must be pulled off the road, charge them for the average income for that time as well. If it's in the agreement for the ride, you can auto charge the account/card as well, since that's how they paid in the first place. I think that's plenty of incentive to cut down on people not treating your vehicles well because there's no driver to call them out. > People might also want personal cars as a quicker convenience, and also as a status symbol. Sure. For the same reason people buy $100k+ cars. That's a somewhat small segment of the market. > There's also those who might want to ride around in a personalized custom car, much like people do today. Insurance will likely start to make that expensive. Sure, it will happen, but I think it will be less common. It's already an expensive hobby.
- icebraining 9y ago
  The cleanup problem really isn't, in my opinion. Riders get tracked in a way that's hard to avoid (since your account is tied to your CC), so when cars get sent off, the company can tag the previous passenger and identify outliers, who can then be forced to pay a surplus fee per ride, covering the extra costs.

posterboy 9y ago

If cars were to navigate on preset routes on streets in ideal conditions, the difference is small, unless you want to win races.