the first two angles make sense. Facebook is what facebook is because of the culture around it. Culture changes with the emergence of new technologies/features.

the first two angles make sense. Facebook is what facebook is because of the culture around it. Culture changes with the emergence of new technologies/features. So i would think that the most probable scenario for a facebook death involves new companies that make better use of emerging technologies, e.g. geolocation. And i happen to believe that if facebook drops the ball on geolocation, and geolocation services see a major increase in popularity, we may see the birth of a competitive social graph. That is a real possibility. As for your third angle, I think there is room for a niche-facebook that could be crazy profitable--but i don't see a niche social network taking over the social graph. that seems relatively far-fetched.