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There's a number of angles of attack available. It's certainly hard to top Facebook purely on the social graph (as you mentioned, everyone is on it). But I thin
by holman 16y ago
There's a number of angles of attack available. It's certainly hard to top Facebook purely on the social graph (as you mentioned, everyone is on it). But I think you can attack Facebook on areas they lack and areas they've fallen down on.
1. Mobile. Facebook does have one of the top mobile apps on the planet, with its iPhone app at the top of the download list for quite some time. But I think it's fair to say Facebook doesn't really care about mobile; the iPhone app languished with overt bugs for half a year before they fixed some of them recently. They have no iPad app. They no longer innovate in this arena (more on that next), and while that probably won't be the case forever, there's a great opportunity for a network with a best-in-class app to take the lead here.
2. Innovation in social. Take, for example, geolocation. Foursquare and Gowalla have definitely found some new niche that will be here to stay: people like to know where friends are, where the currently happening thing is. I've tried those services three or four times each and, while interesting, still aren't compelling enough. Facebook has done nothing here. Yet.
3. Out-facebooking Facebook. I'm a member of the initial Facebook group: my school was something like the fifth school on the site. Things have changed dramatically from those humble beginnings. It's much harder for me to cut through all the Facebook app bullshit today and actually find out what's going on with my friends: status updates, photos, events, that sort of thing. Things that actually matter. People still will want to play games, but I think there's a huge part of the population that just want a clean, social network again. I've expanded on this on a short blog post last month, if you're interested in reading more (and I apologize if you're not): http://zachholman.com/2010/05/rebuild-facebook http://zachholman.com/2010/05/rebuild-facebook
While I don't think Facebook will die a Friendster death in a poof of magic scaling sprinkles, I do think there's opportunity yet for a small outfit to out-innovate them, out Facebook them, or just otherwise carve a lucrative niche for themselves in the market.
- neutronicus 16y agoCompletely with you on point 3. I know a lot of people who do one thing on Facebook: spy on people. Facebook singlehandedly turned "stalk" into a word for a socially acceptable activity. Every new feature that got added after "look at people's photos so they don't realize it, with better web design than myspace, and the assurance that you actually know your 'friends'" has been grumbled about in my social circle. Any product that preserves that essential capability while cutting out the BS has a shot. Honestly, I think explicitly billing yourself as a recreation of "the old facebook" is not only a good idea, but the best idea, from this standpoint. Perhaps "Ye Olde Tome of Countenance: A Throwback to the Days When Facebook Didn't Suck - Click here to import your profile and photos"
- peterzakin 16y agothe first two angles make sense. Facebook is what facebook is because of the culture around it. Culture changes with the emergence of new technologies/features. So i would think that the most probable scenario for a facebook death involves new companies that make better use of emerging technologies, e.g. geolocation. And i happen to believe that if facebook drops the ball on geolocation, and geolocation services see a major increase in popularity, we may see the birth of a competitive social graph. That is a real possibility. As for your third angle, I think there is room for a niche-facebook that could be crazy profitable--but i don't see a niche social network taking over the social graph. that seems relatively far-fetched.
- philwelch 16y agoI have found your third point to be false lately, if you're judicious about hiding third-party apps.