4 ms·

Wonder how many people got "Dad" and wondered why in the world I'm playing against Darth Vader?!?

zitterbewegung 9y ago
So the probability of picking the correct configuration is 1/72 and the probability of picking the right game is 1/27 so it would be 1/1944 or 0.00051 which is better than navigating an asteroid field of 3720 to 1 .
- chris_wot 9y ago
  Never tell me the odds.
- Beltiras 9y ago
  Droids are apparently bad at estimating outside odds since the two instances we see in the movie end with an unlikely outcome given the estimate.
  - devrandomguy 9y ago
    And humans see patterns in a sample size of two ;)
    - Beltiras 9y ago
      Maybe it will rain today. Maybe it won't. 50/50.
      - tripzilch 9y ago
        "Even though the chance of rain was higher than predicted, it wasn't quite so high that it actually rained that day" (translated from a cartoon by Dutch absurdist/cartoonist "Gummbah")
        fineline 9y ago
        They said on the forecast yesterday there was a 50% chance of rain today, and looking outside I can see they got it right. Uncanny.
  - adrianN 9y ago
    Publication bias.
    - Bartweiss 9y ago
      When it's people, I think that's the anthropic principle. (And the file drawer is a much messier place to end up...)
  - MR4D 9y ago
    Survivorship Bias.
  - takingflac 9y ago
    You forgot to add in all those tie fighters chasing them that also tried to make it through an asteroid field.
    - talmand 9y ago
      Plus the bridge of one star destroyer which we've also seen as potentially disastrous for the ship.
  - rflrob 9y ago
    Or C3PO is just a stodgy old frequentist: https://www.countbayesie.com/blog/2015/2/18/hans-solo-and-bayesian-priors https://www.countbayesie.com/blog/2015/2/18/hans-solo-and-ba...
  - InclinedPlane 9y ago
    Han Solo is just force sensitive, that's all.
- rockostrich 9y ago
  I'm not sure how you got to those numbers. There are 18 options for each face option (eyes, hair, mouth) so the odds of picking the right face is 1/5832. And the odds of picking yahtzee are 1/26. So the actual odds of picking the right combo are 1/151632.
  - sonnyz 9y ago
    In the post, it says he only filtered on three. Glasses, Girl, and Smile.

So the probability of picking the correct configuration is 1/72 and the probability of picking the right game is 1/27 so it would be 1/1944 or 0.00051 which is better than navigating an asteroid field of 3720 to 1 .

chris_wot 9y ago
Never tell me the odds.
Beltiras 9y ago
Droids are apparently bad at estimating outside odds since the two instances we see in the movie end with an unlikely outcome given the estimate.
- devrandomguy 9y ago
  And humans see patterns in a sample size of two ;)
  - Beltiras 9y ago
    Maybe it will rain today. Maybe it won't. 50/50.
    - tripzilch 9y ago
      "Even though the chance of rain was higher than predicted, it wasn't quite so high that it actually rained that day" (translated from a cartoon by Dutch absurdist/cartoonist "Gummbah")
      - fineline 9y ago
        They said on the forecast yesterday there was a 50% chance of rain today, and looking outside I can see they got it right. Uncanny.
- adrianN 9y ago
  Publication bias.
  - Bartweiss 9y ago
    When it's people, I think that's the anthropic principle. (And the file drawer is a much messier place to end up...)
- MR4D 9y ago
  Survivorship Bias.
- takingflac 9y ago
  You forgot to add in all those tie fighters chasing them that also tried to make it through an asteroid field.
  - talmand 9y ago
    Plus the bridge of one star destroyer which we've also seen as potentially disastrous for the ship.
- rflrob 9y ago
  Or C3PO is just a stodgy old frequentist: https://www.countbayesie.com/blog/2015/2/18/hans-solo-and-bayesian-priors https://www.countbayesie.com/blog/2015/2/18/hans-solo-and-ba...
- InclinedPlane 9y ago
  Han Solo is just force sensitive, that's all.
rockostrich 9y ago
I'm not sure how you got to those numbers. There are 18 options for each face option (eyes, hair, mouth) so the odds of picking the right face is 1/5832. And the odds of picking yahtzee are 1/26. So the actual odds of picking the right combo are 1/151632.
- sonnyz 9y ago
  In the post, it says he only filtered on three. Glasses, Girl, and Smile.