7 ms·

Which says to me that the overwhelming majority of Canadians do not live in the GTA or the GVA. The average home price in Canada, as of May 2017, is $401,594 US

Which says to me that the overwhelming majority of Canadians do not live in the GTA or the GVA. The average home price in Canada, as of May 2017, is $401,594 USD[1]. The average home price in the US, as of May 2017, is $406,400 USD[2]. Given that the latter has already gone through a correction, it seems like the current level is typical. [1] http://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/national-average-price-map/ http://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/national-average-pri... [2] https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/uspricemon.pdf https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/uspricemon.pdf

refurb 9y ago
It says to me that 1 in 4 Canadians live in a city with an overheated housing market. The US housing market is getting close to overheated at this point. The Canadian one is already cooked.
- randomdata 9y ago
  Exactly. 3 out of 4 Canadians are in 'normal' housing markets and have nothing of particular concern on the horizon. To frame it as a Canadian issue, where 75% of the population are seemingly unaffected, seems disingenuous. As we see from the average figures, the US market has surpassed (granted, only just) the Canadian market. If the US market is only close to overheating, Canada lags behind that.
  - refurb 9y ago
    Real estate is local. The Toronto and Vancouver markets are on the verge of/already rolling over. The US market has a few hot spots, but nothing like what Canada is dealing with.
    - randomdata 9y ago
      Agreed. The Canadian market has a few hot spots where a small minority of the population live, but much like NYC and SF do not represent the US, Toronto and Vancouver do not represent Canada. Overall there does not seem to be much issue in the housing market on either side of the border.
  - mistermann 9y ago
    > If the US market is only close to overheating, Canada lags behind that. Looking at this chart, I can't see how Canada is lagging anyone. Not even sure if this includes the 30% rise in Toronto (our largest city) this year. http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/CANADA-US.png?x64811 http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/CANADA-...
    - randomdata 9y ago
      What do the numbers on the Y-axis represent? Thousands of dollars? But that doesn't seem right. I don't think you would hear too many complaining about even a $180,000 home. $180,000 in 1975 dollars is $788,000 2016 dollars (or $803k if we use the US rate of inflation), which doesn't add up either. Housing is nowhere near that expensive. You can build a brand new mansion for less than that. Canada is lagging behind the US in average home price. As shown above, the average US home price is $5,000 more. As you can also see from the links I provided, Canada's housing market grew by 4.3% YoY (May 2016 to May 2017), while the US market grew by 16% in the same period. The US housing market appears hot, Canada's not so much (outside of Toronto and Vancouver).
      - mistermann 9y ago
        http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/canadas-housing-market-looks-a-lot-like-the-u-s-did-in-2006/ http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/canadas-hous... The following chart is drawn from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’s International House Price Database. It’s an index (100 = prices in 2005) of real, or inflation-adjusted house prices, and it drives home just how much more inflated Canadian house prices are than at the U.S. bubble’s peak. The chart also includes Japan and its mammoth housing bubble of the 1980s—which is more akin to what’s gone on in Canada. > Housing is nowhere near that expensive. You can build a brand new mansion for less than that. I doubt you can build any house, let alone a mansion, anywhere in Canada for that price. At least anywhere a person would want to live. From what I've read, permitting alone would cost that much in Vancouver before you even break ground. > Canada is lagging behind the US in average home price. As shown above, the average US home price is $5,000 more. I wonder if this is apples vs apples? Is "home" the same for both? Also, one has to consider earnings - affordability is what really matters (well, to local buyers anyways). Housing in all of Canada has been in a massive bull market for 20 years with the only noteworthy correction being the short pause after the 2008 crisis. Based on local earnings, a house is going to be historically expensive anywhere, and batshit insane in some places.

refurb 9y ago

It says to me that 1 in 4 Canadians live in a city with an overheated housing market. The US housing market is getting close to overheated at this point. The Canadian one is already cooked.

randomdata 9y ago
Exactly. 3 out of 4 Canadians are in 'normal' housing markets and have nothing of particular concern on the horizon. To frame it as a Canadian issue, where 75% of the population are seemingly unaffected, seems disingenuous. As we see from the average figures, the US market has surpassed (granted, only just) the Canadian market. If the US market is only close to overheating, Canada lags behind that.
- refurb 9y ago
  Real estate is local. The Toronto and Vancouver markets are on the verge of/already rolling over. The US market has a few hot spots, but nothing like what Canada is dealing with.
  - randomdata 9y ago
    Agreed. The Canadian market has a few hot spots where a small minority of the population live, but much like NYC and SF do not represent the US, Toronto and Vancouver do not represent Canada. Overall there does not seem to be much issue in the housing market on either side of the border.
- mistermann 9y ago
  > If the US market is only close to overheating, Canada lags behind that. Looking at this chart, I can't see how Canada is lagging anyone. Not even sure if this includes the 30% rise in Toronto (our largest city) this year. http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/CANADA-US.png?x64811 http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/CANADA-...
  - randomdata 9y ago
    What do the numbers on the Y-axis represent? Thousands of dollars? But that doesn't seem right. I don't think you would hear too many complaining about even a $180,000 home. $180,000 in 1975 dollars is $788,000 2016 dollars (or $803k if we use the US rate of inflation), which doesn't add up either. Housing is nowhere near that expensive. You can build a brand new mansion for less than that. Canada is lagging behind the US in average home price. As shown above, the average US home price is $5,000 more. As you can also see from the links I provided, Canada's housing market grew by 4.3% YoY (May 2016 to May 2017), while the US market grew by 16% in the same period. The US housing market appears hot, Canada's not so much (outside of Toronto and Vancouver).
    - mistermann 9y ago
      http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/canadas-housing-market-looks-a-lot-like-the-u-s-did-in-2006/ http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/canadas-hous... The following chart is drawn from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’s International House Price Database. It’s an index (100 = prices in 2005) of real, or inflation-adjusted house prices, and it drives home just how much more inflated Canadian house prices are than at the U.S. bubble’s peak. The chart also includes Japan and its mammoth housing bubble of the 1980s—which is more akin to what’s gone on in Canada. > Housing is nowhere near that expensive. You can build a brand new mansion for less than that. I doubt you can build any house, let alone a mansion, anywhere in Canada for that price. At least anywhere a person would want to live. From what I've read, permitting alone would cost that much in Vancouver before you even break ground. > Canada is lagging behind the US in average home price. As shown above, the average US home price is $5,000 more. I wonder if this is apples vs apples? Is "home" the same for both? Also, one has to consider earnings - affordability is what really matters (well, to local buyers anyways). Housing in all of Canada has been in a massive bull market for 20 years with the only noteworthy correction being the short pause after the 2008 crisis. Based on local earnings, a house is going to be historically expensive anywhere, and batshit insane in some places.