It can happen the other way around too though. Few people predicted the massive jump in AI ability the last few years. Notable AI researchers said it would take

It can happen the other way around too though. Few people predicted the massive jump in AI ability the last few years. Notable AI researchers said it would take decades to get to human accuracy on imagenet, and they were wrong within a few years. I recall reading the first deep learning Go papers around 2015 and thinking that superhuman Go AI was inevitable in a few years. And when I discussed it with other people they were very skeptical and thought it was unlikely. And then AlphaGo came out...