> You're only willing to bet 4 or 8 years out, which is itself worrying. In the FSU and in Central Asian countries with Turkic influence there is a very widely

> You're only willing to bet 4 or 8 years out, which is itself worrying. In the FSU and in Central Asian countries with Turkic influence there is a very widely known little anecdote about Nasreddin[0] making a bet for a large sum of gold paid in advance with the Padishah that Nasreddin can teach his own mule to know theology better than Padishah himself in 20 years. When asked why he made the bet Nasreddin replied: "In 20 years one of the three will have died: Either me, the mule or the Padishah . And nobody will be able to ascertain who knew Theology better." The takeaway here is that it is foolish to make such long bets when the bettors might not even be around to collect. People in these countries often use the phrase "The mule or the padishah" when talking about politicians overpromising to deliver something over a long time. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasreddin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasreddin https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Sufism/Nasrudin https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Sufism/Nasrudin