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Could this end up being a blessing in disguise? I know traditional theory says that more people => more productivity => bigger economy. But with no people to pr

Could this end up being a blessing in disguise? I know traditional theory says that more people => more productivity => bigger economy. But with no people to produce anything, Japan might be forced to lead the world in AI adoption simply because there is no other way. While US or China might be leading in AI technology, they will face severe pushback because of displacement of jobs. Japan on the other hand might actually require general purpose AI to do daily chores. It could be the first big market for general purpose human-level intelligence robots and all the problems it brings.

muninn_ 9y ago
Agreed. #of people becomes a liability when you start losing jobs and not being able to replace them.
netheril96 9y ago
I am under the impression that IT industry is far less active in Japan than US and China. While more old people may demand more automation, more old people also breed more conservatism, hampering the adoption and development of new technology.
- zanny 9y ago
  This is something I never heard of thought of in the context of aging populations but it sounds true. It builds a self perpetuating cycle - if the population pyramid leans older, it leans more conservative, which drives an agenda that limits volatility and thus innovation, which can stagnate an economy that can constrict reproduction if there isn't enough prosperity to justify having children.
- jfoster 9y ago
  Softbank bought Boston Dynamics from Google recently under a $93 billion fund they have. Japan certainly has a domestic tech industry, but perhaps not much of an international one.
- marak830 9y ago
  (first off yes this is just one data point, second I'm an Aussie married to a Japanese woman living in Japan for around 5 years now), I am amazed at how much my wife's grandparents use and embrace technology. They have smartphones and recently we have been looking into a few different robot assistants(grandpa is on permanent oxygen tanks and grandma recently broke her hip, so movement is becoming restricted). Of course this isn't all seniors here, but I do see a lot more tech used casually among an older crowd that I saw in Australia. (They are both 93 btw).
mcphage 9y ago
> But with no people to produce anything, Japan might be forced to lead the world in AI adoption simply because there is no other way. With a shrinking population, who's left to do all the work required to develop that AI?
- zanny 9y ago
  You act like there aren't ~35 million Japanese 30 and younger. Aging != nobody is being born. There are plenty of young Japanese who can be extremely well educated inheriting the wealth of a larger generation who can apply that education to develop the future.
  - mcphage 9y ago
    They've got jobs already—unemployment is what, 2%? And as the population ages even further, there's going to be a shortage of people required to take care of them. So there are plenty of young Japanese, but no huge population that they can dump into AI work.
    - zanny 9y ago
      Economics is not some magical playing field where new players enter and are handed work to be done. It is always about a competition between resources available and labor demanded. The aging Japanese will generate demand for late life care services and that demand will stimulate supply from the youth as it becomes more and more profitable a profession to pursue. Likewise, as AI R&D becomes more and more valuable (and to whomever it is valuable to) those who would invest in it can grow their offerings until the youth start training to do the R&D. What this does not mean is that you have an absolute "shortage" of workers. It means you won't be able to get work done as cheaply if you are competing for labor resources, but it seems a bit backwards to have simultaneous discussions about the mass unemployed of America aside a conversation about how Japan has nobody to do in demand jobs. It is about how the aggregate of society values things. If the people of Japan value AI research, it will be done because the price commanded will be high for it, and will attract talent. I also do not believe for a second that advanced R&D is a discipline that skirts the bottom of labor demand where having a shrinking population might actually cost work being done, the kind of work that is barely break even and is price inelastic to growing wages. From the outset your price is above the wage floor for R&D because you don't want just anyone doing it, you want intelligent people who will already command above minimum wage. What that kind of pressure does accomplish, in a shrinking population, is more pressure on the youth you have to become educated and professional. I see it as a subconscious manifestation in the work ethic the Japanese have maintained - the US is largely giving up on mass education as an institution because the real demand for professionals in all matter of industries is not great enough to overcome the inertia of youth to have to spend the time and effort to become skilled, and it is made manifest in the student loan bubble - if there were legitimate, unmet demand for some specific profession, even computer science, the prices would keep rising until there was so much demand the opportunity presented to youth would in aggregate not go ignored, and more youth would train into that discipline. Japan is at risk of running out of the jobs that have marginal to no societal value, that require no training or expertise, and require no effort from youth. Not the ones the nation as a whole will put their money behind in calling valuable.
tanilama 9y ago
AI is not there, yet. We are making huge advance, but there is absolutely no guarantee that when we would find AGI. Probably in 5 years, probably 50 years, probably 100 years. From the scale of history, it is nothing. But for Japan, they would reach 50% of old people in the middle of this century. They better pray on breakthrough of AI and by the time they still have a nation to save

muninn_ 9y ago

Agreed. #of people becomes a liability when you start losing jobs and not being able to replace them.

netheril96 9y ago

I am under the impression that IT industry is far less active in Japan than US and China. While more old people may demand more automation, more old people also breed more conservatism, hampering the adoption and development of new technology.

zanny 9y ago
This is something I never heard of thought of in the context of aging populations but it sounds true. It builds a self perpetuating cycle - if the population pyramid leans older, it leans more conservative, which drives an agenda that limits volatility and thus innovation, which can stagnate an economy that can constrict reproduction if there isn't enough prosperity to justify having children.
jfoster 9y ago
Softbank bought Boston Dynamics from Google recently under a $93 billion fund they have. Japan certainly has a domestic tech industry, but perhaps not much of an international one.
marak830 9y ago
(first off yes this is just one data point, second I'm an Aussie married to a Japanese woman living in Japan for around 5 years now), I am amazed at how much my wife's grandparents use and embrace technology. They have smartphones and recently we have been looking into a few different robot assistants(grandpa is on permanent oxygen tanks and grandma recently broke her hip, so movement is becoming restricted). Of course this isn't all seniors here, but I do see a lot more tech used casually among an older crowd that I saw in Australia. (They are both 93 btw).

mcphage 9y ago

> But with no people to produce anything, Japan might be forced to lead the world in AI adoption simply because there is no other way. With a shrinking population, who's left to do all the work required to develop that AI?

zanny 9y ago
You act like there aren't ~35 million Japanese 30 and younger. Aging != nobody is being born. There are plenty of young Japanese who can be extremely well educated inheriting the wealth of a larger generation who can apply that education to develop the future.
- mcphage 9y ago
  They've got jobs already—unemployment is what, 2%? And as the population ages even further, there's going to be a shortage of people required to take care of them. So there are plenty of young Japanese, but no huge population that they can dump into AI work.
  - zanny 9y ago
    Economics is not some magical playing field where new players enter and are handed work to be done. It is always about a competition between resources available and labor demanded. The aging Japanese will generate demand for late life care services and that demand will stimulate supply from the youth as it becomes more and more profitable a profession to pursue. Likewise, as AI R&D becomes more and more valuable (and to whomever it is valuable to) those who would invest in it can grow their offerings until the youth start training to do the R&D. What this does not mean is that you have an absolute "shortage" of workers. It means you won't be able to get work done as cheaply if you are competing for labor resources, but it seems a bit backwards to have simultaneous discussions about the mass unemployed of America aside a conversation about how Japan has nobody to do in demand jobs. It is about how the aggregate of society values things. If the people of Japan value AI research, it will be done because the price commanded will be high for it, and will attract talent. I also do not believe for a second that advanced R&D is a discipline that skirts the bottom of labor demand where having a shrinking population might actually cost work being done, the kind of work that is barely break even and is price inelastic to growing wages. From the outset your price is above the wage floor for R&D because you don't want just anyone doing it, you want intelligent people who will already command above minimum wage. What that kind of pressure does accomplish, in a shrinking population, is more pressure on the youth you have to become educated and professional. I see it as a subconscious manifestation in the work ethic the Japanese have maintained - the US is largely giving up on mass education as an institution because the real demand for professionals in all matter of industries is not great enough to overcome the inertia of youth to have to spend the time and effort to become skilled, and it is made manifest in the student loan bubble - if there were legitimate, unmet demand for some specific profession, even computer science, the prices would keep rising until there was so much demand the opportunity presented to youth would in aggregate not go ignored, and more youth would train into that discipline. Japan is at risk of running out of the jobs that have marginal to no societal value, that require no training or expertise, and require no effort from youth. Not the ones the nation as a whole will put their money behind in calling valuable.

tanilama 9y ago

AI is not there, yet. We are making huge advance, but there is absolutely no guarantee that when we would find AGI. Probably in 5 years, probably 50 years, probably 100 years. From the scale of history, it is nothing. But for Japan, they would reach 50% of old people in the middle of this century. They better pray on breakthrough of AI and by the time they still have a nation to save