4 ms·

There are plenty of flaws in the argument here. I know plenty of reasonably dumb yet successful entrepreneurs. Plus the situation is fluid over time (many peo

There are plenty of flaws in the argument here. I know plenty of reasonably dumb yet successful entrepreneurs. Plus the situation is fluid over time (many people only get motivated when the need arises). Also "three distinct castes", well it's not that digital. Still I can't disagree with the essence of it. It could certainly turn into some form of feudalism, where the haves control everything and peasants work hand-to-mouth, or worse. Though that's somewhat guaranteed at some level by Malthusian logic anyway. Though it does open the interesting paradox where if humans kill the economy by automation, then there's nobody to buy anything anymore, so there's no need to automate anything anymore, so does the economy then come right back?

daxfohl 9y ago
I gave that last item a bit more thought, and I think that may be the mitigating factor in all this. You can only automate so much / put so many people out of work, until it becomes unprofitable to automate anything else because the market will have fallen so far. So rather than a single huge mass event where automation destroys our fabric of life, we'll have swings back and forth from overautomation to overemployment. Each swing will give us a chance to re-evaluate and rebalance our priorities. Essentially that's already happening and has already happened over the last ... couple centuries really. I guess there's a chance that the pendulum could suddenly swing so far in one direction that it's irrecoverable, but at least I don't think one can say it's inevitable.
- sillysaurus3 9y ago
  It doesn't take very many people out of work to wreak havoc. Food shortage is the main cause of revolt. There was an excellent paper on this that I can't find, but it's well-studied in academia. Here's a paper I haven't studied: https://ucanr.edu/blogs/food2025/blogfiles/14415.pdf https://ucanr.edu/blogs/food2025/blogfiles/14415.pdf The great depression only had about 30% unemployment, for example. That "overautomation" phase isn't something you'll want to linger in without a plan to support these people. EDIT: For a glimpse of the future, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRXr7zB5M2A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRXr7zB5M2A is worth listening to. It's the present, actually, but the struggles are only going to increase.
  - daxfohl 9y ago
    Well, unless drug dealing is the next thing to get automated. :/ And even if there ever is a plan of how to deal with all this, I can't help but think it parallels the old sci-fi short story "With Folded Hands". semi-sequitur: From my liberal bubble, the liberal bubble light bulb buzzes over my head thinking, perhaps that whole short story is exactly what strikes conservatives to the core. It kind of makes sense. I kind of see what they mean. Granted I have no clue what that has to do with gay rights. But for a second I understood. Sympathized, even. Anyway, back to the bubble.

daxfohl 9y ago

I gave that last item a bit more thought, and I think that may be the mitigating factor in all this. You can only automate so much / put so many people out of work, until it becomes unprofitable to automate anything else because the market will have fallen so far. So rather than a single huge mass event where automation destroys our fabric of life, we'll have swings back and forth from overautomation to overemployment. Each swing will give us a chance to re-evaluate and rebalance our priorities. Essentially that's already happening and has already happened over the last ... couple centuries really. I guess there's a chance that the pendulum could suddenly swing so far in one direction that it's irrecoverable, but at least I don't think one can say it's inevitable.

sillysaurus3 9y ago
It doesn't take very many people out of work to wreak havoc. Food shortage is the main cause of revolt. There was an excellent paper on this that I can't find, but it's well-studied in academia. Here's a paper I haven't studied: https://ucanr.edu/blogs/food2025/blogfiles/14415.pdf https://ucanr.edu/blogs/food2025/blogfiles/14415.pdf The great depression only had about 30% unemployment, for example. That "overautomation" phase isn't something you'll want to linger in without a plan to support these people. EDIT: For a glimpse of the future, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRXr7zB5M2A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRXr7zB5M2A is worth listening to. It's the present, actually, but the struggles are only going to increase.
- daxfohl 9y ago
  Well, unless drug dealing is the next thing to get automated. :/ And even if there ever is a plan of how to deal with all this, I can't help but think it parallels the old sci-fi short story "With Folded Hands". semi-sequitur: From my liberal bubble, the liberal bubble light bulb buzzes over my head thinking, perhaps that whole short story is exactly what strikes conservatives to the core. It kind of makes sense. I kind of see what they mean. Granted I have no clue what that has to do with gay rights. But for a second I understood. Sympathized, even. Anyway, back to the bubble.