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I am not a trucker but from what I understood from other truckers is that this can be seen as a benefit to them. There is a lot more effort as a trucker in mana

I am not a trucker but from what I understood from other truckers is that this can be seen as a benefit to them. There is a lot more effort as a trucker in managing the cargo than the driving. Lots of paperwork at pickup, drop off and in between checks. There is effort to ensure the security of the cargo. I think the expectation is that wages would stay the same and truckers stop driving and start managing. Keep in mind wages are already fairly low.

eduren 9y ago
Yup, end-of-the-line logistics would be an easily transitioned to stopgap measure. Some former truckers would be able to stay local and handle loading/unloading. Not as many as are currently on the road, but every little bit of transitioning helps.
vkou 9y ago
Wages might stay the same, but half of them would lose their jobs. Wages are a trucking firm's biggest expense. Why would a firm go out and buy a bunch of expensive self-driving trucks, so that they could pay the same number of people the same wages.
- mertd 9y ago
  You assumed that the trucking volume will stay the same when the cost goes down significantly.
  - vkou 9y ago
    If the cost of electricity halves, will you start using twice as much electricity? Halving the cost of transporting goods will not double the demand for transporting goods. Consumer budgets are fixed, and transportation is a very small fraction of the price of goods that consumers buy. Dropping the cost of transport by 30%, because you only need to employ half the truckers, will not double demand. Unlike the before-after world of trucking, air travel, container shipping, etc, there isn't a mountain of businesses that suddenly become viable when long-haul costs get slashed by a third.
    - dsfyu404ed 9y ago
      It won't double it but it will be close in some locales. It would also slightly decrease the cost of a heck of a lot of things.
      - vkou 9y ago
        Exactly which categories of businesses are sitting on their hands, going 'Golly - we'd make and sell so much more of our product, if only shipping & handling were 30% cheaper'? What fraction of the economy do they make up? What if efficiency gains are not 2x, but 10x? What if you'll only need to employ one trucker to do the job of 10? Do you think demand for trucking will go up 10x? This isn't a web framework.
        TJ-14 9y ago
        Everything that you buy online, in a Walmart, or is otherwise manufactured a city away from where it's sold? Trucking costs are built into most products. My grocery store sells apples from California. If the cost of trucking them to me goes down, those apples will decrease in cost and they will potentially sell more apples.
        Spooky23 9y ago
        Shipping probably cost less than the plastic container. Automation of driving is all about making people with lots of capital richer. Efficiency is just the dream -- this stuff will dramatically increase costs of shipping as capacity is constrained.
        dsfyu404ed 9y ago
        The demand will not rise 1:1, that's a given. It will rise the same way that when gas is cheap people are more likely to take road trips. For example, I just requested quotes for waterjetting some stuff today. If LTL shipping were cheap enough to I'd look outside the high CoL sphincter of the country where I happen to reside but instead I'm stuck paying a premium because the local cost of everything is high. There's also a cylinder head in my garage for a 60s Ford I'd like to give to someone who needs it but nobody needs it bad enough to pay for me to ship it across the country. At the higher volume levels similar stuff happens. A construction company may source steel from farther away to undercut it's competition. You can bet the logistics people at Walmart (and anyone else with a big fleet) are drooling over all the optimizations they could implement if trucks could run like call centers.
  - 0xffff2 9y ago
    If you're still paying the same number of truck operators the same wage, how are costs going to go down at all? Self-driving trucks certainly aren't going to be cheaper to buy or maintain than their non-sentient counterparts... What other factors drive the cost of truck transportation?
    - stale2002 9y ago
      Because the same number of truck operators can now drive 3 trucks at once. Cost stay the same, but trucking capacity triples.
      - vkou 9y ago
        Precisely. Someone said that once driving is automated, truckers will only be responsible for cargo management, with a few people standing by for a fleet, ready to take over manually if autopilot breaks.
- infecto 9y ago
  Someone still needs to accompany the truck. Sure perhaps in the distant future this is not true but at least for the generation of current truckers a person will still be necessary. Yes wages are the biggest expense but I think the big pushed for self-driving trucks is 1) Reduced liability 2) Trucks can be operating nearly 24hrs a day. 3) Greater fuel efficiency. So sure some will lose their jobs but I think half is overly pessimistic.
  - hueving 9y ago
    Unless the drivers are allowed to sleep while the truck is driving, then they can't operate any more hours than they operate now.
    - flukus 9y ago
      Long stretches on open highway will be the first place we allow drivers to be completely hands off.
      - mousa 9y ago
        I`m sure The first driverless cars for the public will start being available for rides in Silicon Valley or AZ and just on the regular roads they know very very well. I've still never seen one on the highway.
        fooker 9y ago
        You can spot the Google self-driving car on 101 and 280.
HeyLaughingBoy 9y ago
Keep in mind wages are already fairly low In comparison to a computer programmer, yes. In comparison to the nationwide average, no. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi5vMKdsdLUAhVo74MKHVVTDHAQFgguMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.truckdriverssalary.com%2Fhow-much-can-you-earn-your-1st-year-as-a-trucker%2F&usg=AFQjCNHrhbzA9AlajalycKMf_eI2Jie2vw https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&c... I can immediately think of one (retired) truck driver I know who comfortably raised a family of 6 on a single salary.
- boomboomsubban 9y ago
  You linked a site that makes money on convincing people to spend money getting a CDL, not really a reliable source. Very few truckers are doing well, even your source wages aren't that great for most positions when you add in the other costs. And USA Today had a piece last week about one working unsafe hours and making as little as $.67 a week. https://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/news/rigged-forced-into-debt-worked-past-exhaustion-left-with-nothing/ https://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/news/rigged-forc...
- taneq 9y ago
  The hourly wages are very low. Some truckers earn decent money because they work insane hours.
Spooky23 9y ago
Trucker wages are not low. It's a middle class job in many cases and a decent semiskilled job in others. Most of those roles managing bullshit at the head end will go away as the robot fleets consolidate and the current carriers die off. Customers will have to take or leave on whatever terms the carrier demands -- just like the old railroad days.

eduren 9y ago

Yup, end-of-the-line logistics would be an easily transitioned to stopgap measure. Some former truckers would be able to stay local and handle loading/unloading. Not as many as are currently on the road, but every little bit of transitioning helps.

vkou 9y ago

Wages might stay the same, but half of them would lose their jobs. Wages are a trucking firm's biggest expense. Why would a firm go out and buy a bunch of expensive self-driving trucks, so that they could pay the same number of people the same wages.

mertd 9y ago
You assumed that the trucking volume will stay the same when the cost goes down significantly.
- vkou 9y ago
  If the cost of electricity halves, will you start using twice as much electricity? Halving the cost of transporting goods will not double the demand for transporting goods. Consumer budgets are fixed, and transportation is a very small fraction of the price of goods that consumers buy. Dropping the cost of transport by 30%, because you only need to employ half the truckers, will not double demand. Unlike the before-after world of trucking, air travel, container shipping, etc, there isn't a mountain of businesses that suddenly become viable when long-haul costs get slashed by a third.
  - dsfyu404ed 9y ago
    It won't double it but it will be close in some locales. It would also slightly decrease the cost of a heck of a lot of things.
    - vkou 9y ago
      Exactly which categories of businesses are sitting on their hands, going 'Golly - we'd make and sell so much more of our product, if only shipping & handling were 30% cheaper'? What fraction of the economy do they make up? What if efficiency gains are not 2x, but 10x? What if you'll only need to employ one trucker to do the job of 10? Do you think demand for trucking will go up 10x? This isn't a web framework.
      - TJ-14 9y ago
        Everything that you buy online, in a Walmart, or is otherwise manufactured a city away from where it's sold? Trucking costs are built into most products. My grocery store sells apples from California. If the cost of trucking them to me goes down, those apples will decrease in cost and they will potentially sell more apples.
        Spooky23 9y ago
        Shipping probably cost less than the plastic container. Automation of driving is all about making people with lots of capital richer. Efficiency is just the dream -- this stuff will dramatically increase costs of shipping as capacity is constrained.
      - dsfyu404ed 9y ago
        The demand will not rise 1:1, that's a given. It will rise the same way that when gas is cheap people are more likely to take road trips. For example, I just requested quotes for waterjetting some stuff today. If LTL shipping were cheap enough to I'd look outside the high CoL sphincter of the country where I happen to reside but instead I'm stuck paying a premium because the local cost of everything is high. There's also a cylinder head in my garage for a 60s Ford I'd like to give to someone who needs it but nobody needs it bad enough to pay for me to ship it across the country. At the higher volume levels similar stuff happens. A construction company may source steel from farther away to undercut it's competition. You can bet the logistics people at Walmart (and anyone else with a big fleet) are drooling over all the optimizations they could implement if trucks could run like call centers.
- 0xffff2 9y ago
  If you're still paying the same number of truck operators the same wage, how are costs going to go down at all? Self-driving trucks certainly aren't going to be cheaper to buy or maintain than their non-sentient counterparts... What other factors drive the cost of truck transportation?
  - stale2002 9y ago
    Because the same number of truck operators can now drive 3 trucks at once. Cost stay the same, but trucking capacity triples.
    - vkou 9y ago
      Precisely. Someone said that once driving is automated, truckers will only be responsible for cargo management, with a few people standing by for a fleet, ready to take over manually if autopilot breaks.
infecto 9y ago
Someone still needs to accompany the truck. Sure perhaps in the distant future this is not true but at least for the generation of current truckers a person will still be necessary. Yes wages are the biggest expense but I think the big pushed for self-driving trucks is 1) Reduced liability 2) Trucks can be operating nearly 24hrs a day. 3) Greater fuel efficiency. So sure some will lose their jobs but I think half is overly pessimistic.
- hueving 9y ago
  Unless the drivers are allowed to sleep while the truck is driving, then they can't operate any more hours than they operate now.
  - flukus 9y ago
    Long stretches on open highway will be the first place we allow drivers to be completely hands off.
    - mousa 9y ago
      I`m sure The first driverless cars for the public will start being available for rides in Silicon Valley or AZ and just on the regular roads they know very very well. I've still never seen one on the highway.
      - fooker 9y ago
        You can spot the Google self-driving car on 101 and 280.

HeyLaughingBoy 9y ago

Keep in mind wages are already fairly low In comparison to a computer programmer, yes. In comparison to the nationwide average, no. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi5vMKdsdLUAhVo74MKHVVTDHAQFgguMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.truckdriverssalary.com%2Fhow-much-can-you-earn-your-1st-year-as-a-trucker%2F&usg=AFQjCNHrhbzA9AlajalycKMf_eI2Jie2vw https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&c... I can immediately think of one (retired) truck driver I know who comfortably raised a family of 6 on a single salary.

boomboomsubban 9y ago
You linked a site that makes money on convincing people to spend money getting a CDL, not really a reliable source. Very few truckers are doing well, even your source wages aren't that great for most positions when you add in the other costs. And USA Today had a piece last week about one working unsafe hours and making as little as $.67 a week. https://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/news/rigged-forced-into-debt-worked-past-exhaustion-left-with-nothing/ https://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/news/rigged-forc...
taneq 9y ago
The hourly wages are very low. Some truckers earn decent money because they work insane hours.

Spooky23 9y ago

Trucker wages are not low. It's a middle class job in many cases and a decent semiskilled job in others. Most of those roles managing bullshit at the head end will go away as the robot fleets consolidate and the current carriers die off. Customers will have to take or leave on whatever terms the carrier demands -- just like the old railroad days.