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The article makes the argument that US and Canada shared similar house price trajectory till 2005, then diverged significantly. The argument has merits, but ca

The article makes the argument that US and Canada shared similar house price trajectory till 2005, then diverged significantly. The argument has merits, but can there be other arguments? Such as US and Canada are becoming dissimilar economically, or a change in real estate desirability in the eyes of foreign investors? If looking at the past price data can predict the future price trend, the stock market would be a very different beast altogether.

alacombe 9y ago
Also, there is space constraint. Eg, Vancouver: everything which can be built has been built. South, it is blocked by the US border, north by the mountains and native lands, west by the ocean. The only option really is east, though, it directly translate into crazy commute time. Combine this with one of the best weather conditions in Canada (mild winter/summer) and high asian immigration, and that's a recipe for [very] high prices.
- hiphipjorge 9y ago
  > South, it is blocked by the US border There's a long stretch of land between Vancouver and the US border (30 min drive maybe?) with mostly empty land. Am I missing something?
  - alacombe 9y ago
    Yes, it's farm land. But still, the closest "rural" areas beside Delta is about 1h travel from downtown.
  - guardiangod 9y ago
    Yeah, the lack of high-capacity bridges across the rivers. The house prices in that 30 minutes worth of land (I live in it) are also approaching $1 million. The only reason they don't go higher is because of commuting. The newly elected provincial government has just announced they will suspend the construction of a new bridge; many condo and houses to the south were built with the assumption that the bridge will open and make the southern suburb much more attractive. For whatever reason, the mayor of Vancouver and its immediate surrounding satellite cities (Burnaby, Richmond, etc.) are fighting hard to not expand the road system. Instead they are 'pushing' for better mass (not rapid) transit between the out-rim suburb and the core cities. I don't know if they are sincere in reducing traffic, but this has an knock-on effect of keeping the house prices in the core cities much higher than otherwise (eg. a rapid transit thru that 30 minutes worth of land.)
    - desdiv 9y ago
      >For whatever reason, the mayor of Vancouver and its immediate surrounding satellite cities (Burnaby, Richmond, etc.) are fighting hard to not expand the road system. Instead they are 'pushing' for better mass (not rapid) transit between the out-rim suburb and the core cities. Not expanding the road system is a counter-intuitive strategy to reduce traffic jams, see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7965077 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7965077 I won't pass judgement on whether it works or not, but it does appear to be supported by logic and data, so those mayors aren't just acting on NIMBYism.
  - nikanj 9y ago
    That's the agricultural land reserve. Can't build there, aside from mansions. https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/farmland-and-real-estate-in-british-columbia/article32923810/?ref=https://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/farmlan...
- mahyarm 9y ago
  Vancouver could legalize making 6 story high apartment buildings with 2000 sqft 4 bedroom family sized units.
taurath 9y ago
Compare that Canada map with Seattle and the bay and Boston and I'll bet it will look almost the same. There's some other pattern happening here within a lot of US cities and Canada
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

alacombe 9y ago

Also, there is space constraint. Eg, Vancouver: everything which can be built has been built. South, it is blocked by the US border, north by the mountains and native lands, west by the ocean. The only option really is east, though, it directly translate into crazy commute time. Combine this with one of the best weather conditions in Canada (mild winter/summer) and high asian immigration, and that's a recipe for [very] high prices.

hiphipjorge 9y ago
> South, it is blocked by the US border There's a long stretch of land between Vancouver and the US border (30 min drive maybe?) with mostly empty land. Am I missing something?
- alacombe 9y ago
  Yes, it's farm land. But still, the closest "rural" areas beside Delta is about 1h travel from downtown.
- guardiangod 9y ago
  Yeah, the lack of high-capacity bridges across the rivers. The house prices in that 30 minutes worth of land (I live in it) are also approaching $1 million. The only reason they don't go higher is because of commuting. The newly elected provincial government has just announced they will suspend the construction of a new bridge; many condo and houses to the south were built with the assumption that the bridge will open and make the southern suburb much more attractive. For whatever reason, the mayor of Vancouver and its immediate surrounding satellite cities (Burnaby, Richmond, etc.) are fighting hard to not expand the road system. Instead they are 'pushing' for better mass (not rapid) transit between the out-rim suburb and the core cities. I don't know if they are sincere in reducing traffic, but this has an knock-on effect of keeping the house prices in the core cities much higher than otherwise (eg. a rapid transit thru that 30 minutes worth of land.)
  - desdiv 9y ago
    >For whatever reason, the mayor of Vancouver and its immediate surrounding satellite cities (Burnaby, Richmond, etc.) are fighting hard to not expand the road system. Instead they are 'pushing' for better mass (not rapid) transit between the out-rim suburb and the core cities. Not expanding the road system is a counter-intuitive strategy to reduce traffic jams, see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7965077 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7965077 I won't pass judgement on whether it works or not, but it does appear to be supported by logic and data, so those mayors aren't just acting on NIMBYism.
- nikanj 9y ago
  That's the agricultural land reserve. Can't build there, aside from mansions. https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/farmland-and-real-estate-in-british-columbia/article32923810/?ref=https://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/farmlan...
mahyarm 9y ago
Vancouver could legalize making 6 story high apartment buildings with 2000 sqft 4 bedroom family sized units.

taurath 9y ago

Compare that Canada map with Seattle and the bay and Boston and I'll bet it will look almost the same. There's some other pattern happening here within a lot of US cities and Canada

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]