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The response to that has always been that if they can stay afloat until autonomous vehicles arrive, they can cut costs to the point where they're profitable. Be
by curun1r 9y ago
The response to that has always been that if they can stay afloat until autonomous vehicles arrive, they can cut costs to the point where they're profitable. Beyond that, with the driver costs out of the picture, the cost of an autonomous ride would actually be below the per-mile cost of driving your own vehicle to the point where Uber would ride a wave of decreased individual ownership and reliance on car-hailing services.
The WayMo lawsuit, in which Google appears to have a pretty airtight case, has destroyed that hope. It's the Carpathia radioing that they're 4 hours away. There's no help coming and the Titanic is going down.
Now all these shifts are likely still going to happen. A seemingly cogent analysis I came across recently [1] breaks down the costs and strongly argues for a future where individual vehicle ownership is the departure from the norm rather than the default that it is today. But it just won't be Uber that cashes in on it. Or, more accurately, it won't be the current Uber. If Uber goes down in flames, their carcass will be plucked and someone, perhaps Google in the lawsuit settlement, will come away with Uber's brand and logistics platform that can be paired with self-driving technology to achieve Uber's vision.
[1] https://shift.newco.co/this-is-how-big-oil-will-die-38b843bd4fe0 https://shift.newco.co/this-is-how-big-oil-will-die-38b843bd...
- Animats 9y agoThe Waymo lawsuit shouldn't affect Uber much. Google's LIDAR is rotating machinery for experimental vehicles, not production use. The production products will be flash LIDAR at a low price point. From Continental, definitely, and Quanergy, maybe. (Quanergy, maybe not. They've been talking big since 2015, but haven't shipped.)
- Flenser 9y agoEven if they could survive until they can switch to autonomous cars, that would remove the barrier to entry for competitors because they wouldn't have to convince drivers to use them. There's more on this comment from last year: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13079767 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13079767