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"By my math, Uber’s true value puts it as number four in the global market, behind Didi Chuxing, Waymo, and Tesla, who will become a future competitor should Ub

"By my math, Uber’s true value puts it as number four in the global market, behind Didi Chuxing, Waymo, and Tesla, who will become a future competitor should Uber make it to the autonomous future." Somehow I lost my interest to read further after this phrase. To me the comparison mostly doesn't make sense. I've been Uber customer for couple of years now, and I have to say for some parts Uber, as a service, has tremendously improved my life. These other companies seem to offer quite different products/services or are in whole different markets (Didi is only China AFAIK, while Uber works globally).

monkeyprojects 9y ago
It depends on the market you look at. At the moment uber is very useful (heck in the past fortnight I have used it in Bangalore, Helsinki and Vienna) but it does have a serious weakness - Uber competes on price but there is no evidence that it is profitable nor (far more worryingly) that it knows how it can make itself profitable. Hence it's issue is very much similar to twitter - uber in many countries owns the sector, it just hasn't been able to find a means to make a profit from the sector.
- repomies691 9y ago
  Well, there isn't any else service that is profitable and on those markets? Uber seems to be the only somewhat globally available this kind of service. Even lyft operates only in US. There are lots of local competitors but what I see the most important factor is for the service to work universally everywhere. That's also where I get the most value, because uber has made traveling in certain countries much, much nicer for me.
  - ForHackernews 9y ago
    You are an extreme minority. People who frequently travel internationally are a tiny niche market. Most users just care about having a service that works where they are.
- 5thaccount 9y ago
  > there is no evidence that it is profitable nor (far more worryingly) that it knows how it can make itself profitable. I'm sorry what? I keep reading these sorts of sentiments, but they sound, and I know this is insulting, they sound like people who don't understand business in even the 101 sense. As long as the margin per sale is greater than the cost of that sale, it is possible for a business to be profitable one day. Given Uber charge a percent per ride, they definitely have a workable margin (which not all startups do BTW, e.g. many of the food startups like Bento https://gimletmedia.com/episode/kitchen-confidential-season-3-episode-6/ https://gimletmedia.com/episode/kitchen-confidential-season-...). The question, for a growing business with money in the bank, is are we growing revenue FASTER than we are growing costs. As long as you are, then inevitably, the two lines will intersect at some point. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Yv7OoVt_q0I/UHcx99N5I5I/AAAAAAAAAZ0/B1b7NGVczDM/s1600/Curve.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Yv7OoVt_q0I/UHcx99N5I5I/AAAAAAAAAZ... is the sort of graph Uber needs. So the questions right now for Uber are: at what scale (aka total revenue) does Uber BECOME profitable with its current cost structure? How soon can Uber reach that date? And is Uber's runway long enough to get there? I have no idea of any of these numbers, but http://uk.businessinsider.com/uber-leaked-finances-accounts-revenues-profits-2017-2?r=US&IR=T http://uk.businessinsider.com/uber-leaked-finances-accounts-... has some "leaked" numbers. Seems in Q3 2016 they spent $2.5B and made $1.7B, so they would need to either grow by about 50% with zero cost growth, or cut about 32% of the costs to be profitable. Is that doable? How the F would I know? But I doubt that $2.5B includes many must have costs, like servers, developers and offices, and includes a F-ton of advertising and other incentives all of which are easy-ish to cut. Lets use these numbers as examples: * Costs: $2.5B * Margin: $1.7B * Monthly Costs Growth: 2% * Monthly Revenue Growth: 5% If that is the case, Uber are 15 months from profitable. That's the insane maths of startups: Revenue growth % > Costs Growth % = success. And what about costs? If I were a betting man, I'd wager most of Uber's costs are things they could cut - advertising, non-essential staff, Given their revenue seems to growing rather well, I see no reason why there isn't a time horizon where Uber is inevitably profitable. Whether Uber has enough runway, and whether they can raise more cash, I have no idea. Lastly, I find the idea that is floating about that Uber are subsidizing fares a really odd one. I think Uber are subsidizing things. Uber subsidize. development. Uber are also subsidizing the legal battle in certain markets, by paying for cases that will inevitably help competitors. Heck, Uber is even be subsidizing some drivers in some markets (my NYC driver told me they have some finance scheme in place to help new drivers purchase/lease cars). But subsidizing fares? They take a 20% cut, that is no subsidy! Whether 20% is enough of a cut, and visa versa whether the fees are high enough that a 20% cut is enough raw revenue I don't know. Ditto I don't know whether Uber's runway is long enough, or if they can extend it with more funding. What I do know is all this writing Uber off doesn't seem to track with what seems to me a very sensible "build a moat by being the biggest while growing revenue faster than costs" strategy.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
aminozuur 9y ago
Same here. From that point on, it was clear that she was emotional, irrational, and out of touch with reality.

monkeyprojects 9y ago

It depends on the market you look at. At the moment uber is very useful (heck in the past fortnight I have used it in Bangalore, Helsinki and Vienna) but it does have a serious weakness - Uber competes on price but there is no evidence that it is profitable nor (far more worryingly) that it knows how it can make itself profitable. Hence it's issue is very much similar to twitter - uber in many countries owns the sector, it just hasn't been able to find a means to make a profit from the sector.

repomies691 9y ago
Well, there isn't any else service that is profitable and on those markets? Uber seems to be the only somewhat globally available this kind of service. Even lyft operates only in US. There are lots of local competitors but what I see the most important factor is for the service to work universally everywhere. That's also where I get the most value, because uber has made traveling in certain countries much, much nicer for me.
- ForHackernews 9y ago
  You are an extreme minority. People who frequently travel internationally are a tiny niche market. Most users just care about having a service that works where they are.
5thaccount 9y ago
> there is no evidence that it is profitable nor (far more worryingly) that it knows how it can make itself profitable. I'm sorry what? I keep reading these sorts of sentiments, but they sound, and I know this is insulting, they sound like people who don't understand business in even the 101 sense. As long as the margin per sale is greater than the cost of that sale, it is possible for a business to be profitable one day. Given Uber charge a percent per ride, they definitely have a workable margin (which not all startups do BTW, e.g. many of the food startups like Bento https://gimletmedia.com/episode/kitchen-confidential-season-3-episode-6/ https://gimletmedia.com/episode/kitchen-confidential-season-...). The question, for a growing business with money in the bank, is are we growing revenue FASTER than we are growing costs. As long as you are, then inevitably, the two lines will intersect at some point. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Yv7OoVt_q0I/UHcx99N5I5I/AAAAAAAAAZ0/B1b7NGVczDM/s1600/Curve.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Yv7OoVt_q0I/UHcx99N5I5I/AAAAAAAAAZ... is the sort of graph Uber needs. So the questions right now for Uber are: at what scale (aka total revenue) does Uber BECOME profitable with its current cost structure? How soon can Uber reach that date? And is Uber's runway long enough to get there? I have no idea of any of these numbers, but http://uk.businessinsider.com/uber-leaked-finances-accounts-revenues-profits-2017-2?r=US&IR=T http://uk.businessinsider.com/uber-leaked-finances-accounts-... has some "leaked" numbers. Seems in Q3 2016 they spent $2.5B and made $1.7B, so they would need to either grow by about 50% with zero cost growth, or cut about 32% of the costs to be profitable. Is that doable? How the F would I know? But I doubt that $2.5B includes many must have costs, like servers, developers and offices, and includes a F-ton of advertising and other incentives all of which are easy-ish to cut. Lets use these numbers as examples: * Costs: $2.5B * Margin: $1.7B * Monthly Costs Growth: 2% * Monthly Revenue Growth: 5% If that is the case, Uber are 15 months from profitable. That's the insane maths of startups: Revenue growth % > Costs Growth % = success. And what about costs? If I were a betting man, I'd wager most of Uber's costs are things they could cut - advertising, non-essential staff, Given their revenue seems to growing rather well, I see no reason why there isn't a time horizon where Uber is inevitably profitable. Whether Uber has enough runway, and whether they can raise more cash, I have no idea. Lastly, I find the idea that is floating about that Uber are subsidizing fares a really odd one. I think Uber are subsidizing things. Uber subsidize. development. Uber are also subsidizing the legal battle in certain markets, by paying for cases that will inevitably help competitors. Heck, Uber is even be subsidizing some drivers in some markets (my NYC driver told me they have some finance scheme in place to help new drivers purchase/lease cars). But subsidizing fares? They take a 20% cut, that is no subsidy! Whether 20% is enough of a cut, and visa versa whether the fees are high enough that a 20% cut is enough raw revenue I don't know. Ditto I don't know whether Uber's runway is long enough, or if they can extend it with more funding. What I do know is all this writing Uber off doesn't seem to track with what seems to me a very sensible "build a moat by being the biggest while growing revenue faster than costs" strategy.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

aminozuur 9y ago

Same here. From that point on, it was clear that she was emotional, irrational, and out of touch with reality.