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Here's the issues I have with Numerai - 1) Bullshit marketing where they advertise the usage of "homomorphic encryption". If you've looked at their datasets th
by hendzen 9y ago
Here's the issues I have with Numerai -
1) Bullshit marketing where they advertise the usage of "homomorphic encryption". If you've looked at their datasets they are most likely taking some fundamental and pricing factors and then performing min/max scaling. Nothing too crazy... and I think it would be possible to reconstruct which stock each observation corresponded to given some effort.
2) Professional quants care a lot about the way their features are constructed. The type of data you are looking at affects the type of model you would use... e.g. some kind of GARCH process for lagged time series data vs something different for sector betas, etc.
3) Given (1) there is an insider trading opportunity to reconstruct the underlying data and then submit predictions based on unknown or illegally sourced features.
- qeternity 9y ago#3 is actually a neat way for them to skirt insider trading laws. Insider trading is only illegal if you know that the information is material nonpublic (and a few other requirements). IANAL, so happy to be corrected if I'm missing something.
- isubkhankulov 9y agoi think he meant insider trading the numerai contest, not the stock market itself
- nunyabuizness 9y ago> 1) Well I know the guy that wrote it - he's one of the smartest and most talented people I know and he's not bullshitting. But by all means, try to break it!
- nl 9y agoThere are a lot of pretty good ML people working on Numerai. They know what correlation is, but no one has worked out what the data is yet.