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Yeah, great point about the inductive reasoning. I haven't thought about that aspect too much, although I guess I would call this line of reasoning inductive:
by pillowkusis 9y ago
Yeah, great point about the inductive reasoning. I haven't thought about that aspect too much, although I guess I would call this line of reasoning inductive:
"this globalization sure is impacting people's livelihoods, and causing major economic shifts. Maybe we should slow down."
"it will definitely raise GDP. Rising GDP has always led to rising standard of living. We'll be fine."
- DINKDINK 9y agoThe incompleteness of inductive reasoning is exemplified with The Turkey Problem: All year, day after day, the farmer feeds the turkey. The turkey concludes that the farmer is benign. The day before Thanksgiving, the farmer kills the turkey. The event that the turkey cares the most about, his death, is not in the set of evidence that he uses to make his conclusions about the state of the system. Therefore he is unprepared to handle the outcomes of the system he lives in. The political establishment had the ability to sense the effect of policy. They chose to be ignorant to it or not address it. This is not an example of Turkey Problem or Black Swan, it's more of a Ostrich Problem.