I would argue quite the opposite. It's not a Black Swan at all. It's an entirely predictable outcome that is caused by the incentives of large groups of people.

I would argue quite the opposite. It's not a Black Swan at all. It's an entirely predictable outcome that is caused by the incentives of large groups of people. E.g. when people say "software is eating the world", that really means software engineers, like most people reading this site, are taking away the means of existence of hundreds millions of people. In the US, but much more so outside of the US. Can you really call it a black swan when 1) you see it coming 2) it is perfectly clear what can be done (e.g. killing globalization and stopping people movement around the globe, as is being advocated, yes it's racist, yes it's going to kill GDP and in that sense "make us all worse off", but it's hard to deny that it will help. Not in the way we want it, it'll kill our access to ipads, and force inferior alternatives in many ways. But it will help) 3) you will not cooperate with preventing the black swan, even yourself, because of incentives (you would lose your job) 4) ... This "populist uprising" is a feedback loop that's just barely getting started. It is currently absolutely not worth the word "uprising". A few republicans got elected. Sorry to point this out but that won't be the end of it. It hasn't even begun. We'll need to be very lucky to avoid another war.