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This may kill Uber. Highly unlikely. Why? Investors who stomach multi-billion dollar annual losses will probably just shrug off the recent bit of trouble. If t
by rsp1984 9y ago
This may kill Uber.
Highly unlikely. Why? Investors who stomach multi-billion dollar annual losses will probably just shrug off the recent bit of trouble. If the choice is to either write off $15 billion or to give another couple to help the company go through a rough patch (what a buying opportunity!) I think I know what investors are going to do.
Kalanick's head has now rolled (not that it really hurts him much personally though, it's probably even a relief for him) but seriously a whole nother level of crap would have to happen with Uber before investors start getting comfortable with the thought of letting go those $15 billion.
- muninn_ 9y agoAlso known as the Gambler's Fallacy.
- elsewhen 9y agoi think it's sunk-cost fallacy rather than gambler's fallacy.
- muninn_ 9y agoLOL you're right. Absolutely. I wrote that at like, 7 am as I read HN to help me wake up in the morning. That gave me a chuckle.
- skinnymuch 9y agoHaha I also read HN to wake up in the morning and have made my share of mistakes early on.
- leroy_masochist 9y agoYour comment is predicated on the fallacy that Uber's success is merely a function of runway / the ability to find new investors. Bear in mind that the company's growth has been driven by its ability to run a very, very highly-performant backend -- and that's in turn a matter of getting the very best engineering talent on board. Some, perhaps most of that talent is already pissed off about the fratty work environment and questionable leadership decisions. Recently, their options exercise window changed from 30 days to 7 years[0]. Angry employees + management turnover/uncertainty + limited runway + new rule that basically you don't lose your options when you quit = I'm officially an U-Bear. On a related topic, I think people's schadenfreude for Travis is getting out of control and he's becoming a bit of a totem for everything that's wrong with SV....while his issues are largely self-inflicted ("boob-er" / treating drivers like crap on camera / etc), all the hatred directed toward him seems excessive in context. The guy just lost his mother, maybe cut him some slack? [0]: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2017/05/16/uber-stock-options.html http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2017/05/16/uber...
- noway421 9y agoHow increased exercise window would hurt the company? I think it's something which pleases and reduces employees' anxiousness.
- leroy_masochist 9y agoIt practically eliminates the opportunity-cost of leaving. Having seven years to be able to come up with the liquidity to pay the strike/taxes -- plus, critically, being able to wait several years to get a better understanding of whether the options have value before striking -- completely changes the calculus of whether to depart a company, whether because you're unhappy or because you've found something better elsewhere. Agree this is good for Uber employees and I'm happy they have significantly less of an impediment to leaving than most other workers at pre-exit startups.
- sethrin 9y agoUber is evil. They always have been. I've been trying to talk my friends into boycotting them for years because of their corrupt practices, and the various scams they've run on their drivers. Their highly-performant backend was used to place "ghost cars" and avoid government officials. The timing on this is, yes, frustratingly arbitrary, but this really is the whirlwind they have sown.