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Example: 1 USD is currently worth 0.79 GBP. If I wanted to bet that the USD would decrease in value against the GBP, I could enter into a futures contract (assu
by kcanini 9y ago
Example: 1 USD is currently worth 0.79 GBP. If I wanted to bet that the USD would decrease in value against the GBP, I could enter into a futures contract (assuming the existence of a wiling counterparty) to purchase 0.75 GBP for 1 USD at a date 3 months in the future. If I was right, and the exchange rate drops to 1 USD = 0.7 GBP, then I profit 0.75 - 0.7 = 0.05 GBP.
Instead, I could have just bought the 0.79 GBP immediately and then waited 3 months, and then I would have profited even more: 0.79 - 0.7 = 0.09 GBP.
What does the existence of the futures market allow me to do that I can't already do in this scenario?
My point was that in cases where production is cyclical or storage fees are nonzero, it might be difficult/impossible to trade on the spot market, or it might be prohibitively expensive to hold the item yourself. But currencies don't have either of these problems.
- asdfaoeu 9y agoWhat if you don't have any USD? You can also instead by 10 futures contracts and make 0.50 GBP. Additionally futures aren't just for "betting" they are also for offloading risk. For example a company might expect an sale in another currency and might want to "convert" that earlier to offload the risk of making another purchase in a different currency.
- kcanini 9y agoI guess I'm assuming you can always borrow USD if you want to make this type of trade on the spot market without actually owning USD in the first place, or if you want leverage.
- nivertech 9y ago1. What you describing is a forward contract, not futures. 2. Holding spot currency position is not "zero storage cost", you need to pay daily interest - futures has this built-in in their price. 3. Futures are leveraged 4. Futures contracts are standardized - which makes finding counterparty much easier and allow market makers. 5. Futures traded on regulated exchanges (CFTC in US), unlike spot FX - which is more similar to how crypto exchanges operate.
- joosters 9y agoWhat you describing is a forward contract, not futures. What's the point in splitting hairs. A future is a standardised form of a forward contract, generally so they can be traded more easily. It doesn't affect the underlying financial concepts.
- jnordwick 9y agoI would love to do a real crypto FX futures market. Everything i read tonight seems so amateur hour. Do the calendar spreads, implieds, volatility, high performance matching engine, and market makers.
- joosters 9y agoOpen up a crypto exchange, it's been amateur hour there for a good few years! Offer customers lots of impressive sounding derivatives features, and you can rake in the money. You don't even have to play fair, you can randomly close punters' positions at a whim, stage your own 'flash crashes' to force-sell some suckers, and eventually, when business has grown, your exchange can be 'hacked' and customer money can just vanish. Not your problem! Existing exchanges have been amazed to find out that these 'hacks' aren't even the end of the money train, you can create derivates of the hacked money to let customers re-deposit and trade even further! It is an amazing new world of finance!
- Veratyr 9y ago> What does the existence of the futures market allow me to do that I can't already do in this scenario? Leverage. So I had a look at live data for an example. As of writing, 1GBP = 1.28 USD. Let's look at some example scenarios, assuming I believe 1 GBP will be worth 1.41 USD (+10%) in 3 months and want to make as much money as I can with a $100k investment. - I buy USD from a regular bank or currency exchanger and wait 3 months. If the price goes up 10%, I make $10k. If the price goes down 10%, I lose $10k. If nothing happens, I lose nothing. - I buy GBPUSD futures contracts. I need $7346.25 margin to open the contracts and $5877 to maintain them (per https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=marginnew&p=fut https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=marginnew&...) and I control 62500GBP ($80k) per contract. With $100k, I can buy 13 contracts and control $1.04M. If the price goes up 10%, I make $100k. If it goes down 10%, I lose $100k. And then, for fun: - I buy 86 options for a GBPUSD futures contract at a strike of $1.28 for $99k. If the price goes up 10%, I make $593k. If the price is at ~$1.30, I lose nothing. If the price is below $1.28, I lose $99k. I'm no expert on futures however so there might be something wrong here, though the answer is definitely leverage.
- joosters 9y agoYou don't need a forward/future to introduce leverage. We can trade GBP/USD between each other with as much leverage as we like without any future time conditions. All we need do is agree to pay each other the difference in value as the price changes, multiplied by our agreed leverage. At some point, one or other of us can close the deal and settle the outstanding amount. If you can't strike a deal directly, you go to an exchange or clearinghouse of some kind that will introduce buyers and sellers. Once again, leverage can be created without any forward or future.