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It's not the same as the Monty Hall problem because the prisoner is not given a choice. If you are sure you know the answer to the Monty Hall problem and are a
by aptwebapps 9y ago
It's not the same as the Monty Hall problem because the prisoner is not given a choice. If you are sure you know the answer to the Monty Hall problem and are a programmer then I suggest writing a little simulator to test your answer.
- IanCal 9y agoAs far as I can see, it's identical to the Monty Hall problem, except slightly more precisely phrased in that the guard definitely does not reveal the name of the free prisoner, which is often a contentious point in these discussions (as it alters the probabilities).
- FabHK 9y agoIt is structurally the same. With the wrong conclusion that A now has 1/2 chance of being pardoned, he'd be indifferent between remaining himself or rather being C. With the (correct) conclusion that A still has 1/3 chance of being pardoned, and given that B has 0 chance of being pardoned, A would now rather "switch" with C, who has 2/3 chance of being pardoned. (That he doesn't have that choice doesn't matter.)
- aptwebapps 9y agoI didn't mean it was mathematically different, but the framing is sufficiently different to cause most people to miss the most interesting part. I was leaving out the correct conclusion so as not to spoil it for anyone.