4 ms·

Do you have a citation for the 5 year logistic growth curve? Or is it a 'common knowledge' thing. That's the first time I've heard about it, I'd like to know

• cperciva 16y ago
  No citation, I just pulled it out of the air based on thinking about big startups and where they seem to be at in the exponential / levelling off / saturation curve. But it seems to be approximately right. It took 5 years (1998 -- 2003) for Google to claim the #1 spot for search engine market share; twitter launched 4 years ago and seems to be just reaching the point now where everybody is aware of it (so its growth now will be from increasing the awareness-to-signup conversion rate, not by making more people aware of it); and facebook launched 6 years ago and their growth (in users per day) seems to be slowing down now. I'm not saying that companies can't grow after 5 years, of course; but there does seem to be a general tendency that the growth for a single product seems to peak at about that point.
  • pge 16y ago
    I just want to reinforce cperciva's last point. My observation of 100+ startups that I have worked with or known well is that the growth of a single product often peaks at year 4 or 5. After that, it tails off. Good companies are the ones that keep the innovation going so that there is a new product that continues to drive value for the company around that time. Apple is probably the most obvious and clear example of this (iPod - 2001, iPhone - 2006, iPad - 2010), but the pattern holds true in many software companies I know.
    • stcredzero 16y ago
      If Apple doesn't come out with something arguably innovative around 2014-2015, then it's time to sell, then?