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There's a lot of survival bias, self-marketing and old economy steve in this post. Statistically, you can't do it, and you'll waste a lot of time, money and pr

There's a lot of survival bias, self-marketing and old economy steve in this post. Statistically, you can't do it, and you'll waste a lot of time, money and prime earning years figuring that out. That's not to say you shouldn't try, but only to say you should be realistic about what you are likely sacrificing for that small chance of success.

mindcrime 9y ago
Statistically, you can't do it I'm not sure that's true. I mean, yeah, it's a given that "most new businesses fail", but that's ignoring the point that you can try again and again. Even if you "run out of money" and have to quit, you can go to work for The Man for a few years, rebuild savings and then try again. Lather, rinse, repeat. To be fair though, I'm assuming a situation where you don't have kids, a house payment, etc. and you'll waste a lot of time, money and prime earning years figuring that out. That's not to say you shouldn't try, but only to say you should be realistic about what you are likely sacrificing for that small chance of success. Is it really wasted time though? The way I look at it, if you try to start a business and fail, you still gained from the process, because you mostly likely learned a shit-ton from the process itself. Speaking from my own experience working on Fogbeam, even if we never make a penny, the process will have been invaluable to me, as I've learned, grown and extended myself in ways I never imagined I could.
- carsongross 9y ago
  > To be fair though, I'm assuming a situation where you don't have kids, a house payment, etc. Exactly. "You" means different things. On average, even smart people (maybe especially smart people) aren't cut out for this shit, and that's not to denigrate them. > Is it really wasted time though? Again, it depends. People in the startup world can feel so much pressure that they end up offing themselves, as we saw during the last downturn. Due to survival bias, we rarely hear about the failures, fractured families, ruined savings, etc. There are guys who kept trying over and over and never made it. They usually don't write books or blog articles about it. There are even more guys who started something, limped it along for five or ten years and then watched it peter out, and absorbed all the psychological punishment that entails. I started a reasonably successful company. I'd be really careful about who I recommended it to.

mindcrime 9y ago

Statistically, you can't do it I'm not sure that's true. I mean, yeah, it's a given that "most new businesses fail", but that's ignoring the point that you can try again and again. Even if you "run out of money" and have to quit, you can go to work for The Man for a few years, rebuild savings and then try again. Lather, rinse, repeat. To be fair though, I'm assuming a situation where you don't have kids, a house payment, etc. and you'll waste a lot of time, money and prime earning years figuring that out. That's not to say you shouldn't try, but only to say you should be realistic about what you are likely sacrificing for that small chance of success. Is it really wasted time though? The way I look at it, if you try to start a business and fail, you still gained from the process, because you mostly likely learned a shit-ton from the process itself. Speaking from my own experience working on Fogbeam, even if we never make a penny, the process will have been invaluable to me, as I've learned, grown and extended myself in ways I never imagined I could.

carsongross 9y ago
> To be fair though, I'm assuming a situation where you don't have kids, a house payment, etc. Exactly. "You" means different things. On average, even smart people (maybe especially smart people) aren't cut out for this shit, and that's not to denigrate them. > Is it really wasted time though? Again, it depends. People in the startup world can feel so much pressure that they end up offing themselves, as we saw during the last downturn. Due to survival bias, we rarely hear about the failures, fractured families, ruined savings, etc. There are guys who kept trying over and over and never made it. They usually don't write books or blog articles about it. There are even more guys who started something, limped it along for five or ten years and then watched it peter out, and absorbed all the psychological punishment that entails. I started a reasonably successful company. I'd be really careful about who I recommended it to.