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This is the analysis I make based on what someone with a lot more experience in the markets told me a few days ago, related to $SNAP. - Apple was a company tha

This is the analysis I make based on what someone with a lot more experience in the markets told me a few days ago, related to $SNAP. - Apple was a company that sold computers. SJ being kicked was an relevant event for the company, but it still sold computers and was worth something. - Amazon was an intermediary between sellers and buyers. Today is a company that invested a lot in other things and is worth something. - Facebook could be monetizing something, but it's still just a webpage. Remains to be seen if it's worth something, so their shares are crap (this is from a fundamental point of view, regardless of whether they keep rising) - Nike sells shoes. It's worth something, though it's not a fundamental company for the market. SNAP, on the other hand, has some face recognition algorithms, and created a free app. That's it. It produces nothing. It's a worthless company when it comes down to the assets it has and the product it sells.

PKop 9y ago
SNAP might be a terrible investment at this point (I tend to think so because I don't think they can overcome challenge from Facebook) but based only on your points above, we'd have to conclude Google is "worthless" as well no? Selling something vs nothing is a good metric to think about, but "advertising" is certainly not nothing. In fact, it's a multi-billion $ industry. It just so happens to be dominated by Google and FB currently, who are both "fundamentally" selling something real.
wonder_bread 9y ago
I'm not entirely sure what you're getting it because it seems like your making a pretty strong correlation between companies that provide physical goods as necessities and thus are worth more than those that provide digital goods that you could argue aren't. I'd argue that's increasingly not going to be true. I think one could've argued at the time that Apple wasn't worth something because they were the struggling vertically integrated supplier of consumer based computers in a sea of horizontally integrated providers. It wasn't until they got more of a foothold everybody started seeing the benefits of software made to run on a single type of device. Intermediaries have increasingly become devalued over time as digitization has meant there's less and less of a need for middle-men. Hence why Amazon's surge has come on the heels of providing Entertainment and Cloud services, something intermediaries in their space never did before. Facebook yeah I suppose, the fact that they have margins almost no other company could dream of kind of rationalizes it to a strong degree though. All in all, I see where you're coming from. Nike yes I see where you're coming from. Disclaimer me posting that comment wasn't suppose to be a riot act that Snap's going to be the next $400+ billion dollar company, I'm as skeptical as most about the future prospects. However, I'd argue against saying they produce nothing. The fact that they are anti to the leading social media provider (of sorts) gives them a production point. As demonstrated in their reports, their user's incessant check in's on the app despite any Facebook-esque notification stream to keep them coming back is pretty envious (in my opinion).
lawrenceyan 9y ago
You clearly have failed to see the absolutely mindbogglingly behemoth Facebook has become behind the scenes. The amount of personalized data they have surpasses even Google's at this point. I fear for those that don't take Facebook seriously, and not just in the financial sense either. Data is devastatingly powerful, and with power comes the potential for both great good and great evil.
askafriend 9y ago
This is an incredibly flawed argument and comes from an incredibly flawed perspective on “worth”. The most valuable thing Facebook has is distribution and that is absolutely worth A LOT. Not only that, but it has unprecedented global distribution backed by engagement numbers that keep the value afloat. You’re trying to impose the values of a physical goods economy onto one that is purely digital and the concepts don’t translate. Whoever that "someone" is, probably isn't as experienced in the markets as you think.
- mrleinad 9y ago
  I know for a fact he has over 25 years experience in the markets. The concepts don't translate, that's for sure. However, to claim that Facebook is worth something if they just keep collecting data and we see nothing being done with that, is just wishful thinking. Amazon invests in research and built a PaaS/SaaS service that's worth a lot. It innovates on several products like Kindle and Echo. Owns patents that are worth something. What's the ACTUAL commercial value that Facebook is bringing to the world and to people that's making it so worthwhile? Sharing pics? Getting customized newsfeeds? Having yet another channel to communicate with your aunt or with that customer service? What do we lose if Facebook goes away tomorrow?
  - askafriend 9y ago
    The actual commercial value is what I stated: unprecedented global distribution driven by content (some of which is user-generated and some of which is partner-generated). It's the model that has worked for TV, Radio, and Newspapers but in the new world the integration points are different from those old models making the chain of value much different. Here's a short article that'll help explain it better than I can: https://stratechery.com/2015/aggregation-theory/ https://stratechery.com/2015/aggregation-theory/ By your friend's logic, AirBnB doesn't have any value either.
    - mrleinad 9y ago
      Exactly. The same logic applies. It's a glorified hotel reservation site.

PKop 9y ago

SNAP might be a terrible investment at this point (I tend to think so because I don't think they can overcome challenge from Facebook) but based only on your points above, we'd have to conclude Google is "worthless" as well no? Selling something vs nothing is a good metric to think about, but "advertising" is certainly not nothing. In fact, it's a multi-billion $ industry. It just so happens to be dominated by Google and FB currently, who are both "fundamentally" selling something real.

wonder_bread 9y ago

I'm not entirely sure what you're getting it because it seems like your making a pretty strong correlation between companies that provide physical goods as necessities and thus are worth more than those that provide digital goods that you could argue aren't. I'd argue that's increasingly not going to be true. I think one could've argued at the time that Apple wasn't worth something because they were the struggling vertically integrated supplier of consumer based computers in a sea of horizontally integrated providers. It wasn't until they got more of a foothold everybody started seeing the benefits of software made to run on a single type of device. Intermediaries have increasingly become devalued over time as digitization has meant there's less and less of a need for middle-men. Hence why Amazon's surge has come on the heels of providing Entertainment and Cloud services, something intermediaries in their space never did before. Facebook yeah I suppose, the fact that they have margins almost no other company could dream of kind of rationalizes it to a strong degree though. All in all, I see where you're coming from. Nike yes I see where you're coming from. Disclaimer me posting that comment wasn't suppose to be a riot act that Snap's going to be the next $400+ billion dollar company, I'm as skeptical as most about the future prospects. However, I'd argue against saying they produce nothing. The fact that they are anti to the leading social media provider (of sorts) gives them a production point. As demonstrated in their reports, their user's incessant check in's on the app despite any Facebook-esque notification stream to keep them coming back is pretty envious (in my opinion).

lawrenceyan 9y ago

You clearly have failed to see the absolutely mindbogglingly behemoth Facebook has become behind the scenes. The amount of personalized data they have surpasses even Google's at this point. I fear for those that don't take Facebook seriously, and not just in the financial sense either. Data is devastatingly powerful, and with power comes the potential for both great good and great evil.

askafriend 9y ago

This is an incredibly flawed argument and comes from an incredibly flawed perspective on “worth”. The most valuable thing Facebook has is distribution and that is absolutely worth A LOT. Not only that, but it has unprecedented global distribution backed by engagement numbers that keep the value afloat. You’re trying to impose the values of a physical goods economy onto one that is purely digital and the concepts don’t translate. Whoever that "someone" is, probably isn't as experienced in the markets as you think.

mrleinad 9y ago
I know for a fact he has over 25 years experience in the markets. The concepts don't translate, that's for sure. However, to claim that Facebook is worth something if they just keep collecting data and we see nothing being done with that, is just wishful thinking. Amazon invests in research and built a PaaS/SaaS service that's worth a lot. It innovates on several products like Kindle and Echo. Owns patents that are worth something. What's the ACTUAL commercial value that Facebook is bringing to the world and to people that's making it so worthwhile? Sharing pics? Getting customized newsfeeds? Having yet another channel to communicate with your aunt or with that customer service? What do we lose if Facebook goes away tomorrow?
- askafriend 9y ago
  The actual commercial value is what I stated: unprecedented global distribution driven by content (some of which is user-generated and some of which is partner-generated). It's the model that has worked for TV, Radio, and Newspapers but in the new world the integration points are different from those old models making the chain of value much different. Here's a short article that'll help explain it better than I can: https://stratechery.com/2015/aggregation-theory/ https://stratechery.com/2015/aggregation-theory/ By your friend's logic, AirBnB doesn't have any value either.
  - mrleinad 9y ago
    Exactly. The same logic applies. It's a glorified hotel reservation site.