5 ms·

Let's not fool ourselves. We need that oil to keep business as usual going. Gigatons of liquid energy that fuels most of our civilization.

dvhh 9y ago
Let's not forget the material for our modern age : plastic
- ljf 9y ago
  Don't forget Fertiliser - comes from gas not oil - but we'd be screwed without it: http://grist.org/article/2010-02-11-tracking-u-s-farmers-supply-nitrogen-fertilizer/ http://grist.org/article/2010-02-11-tracking-u-s-farmers-sup...
redahs 9y ago
Importing goods from non-democratic countries is not an all-or-nothing proposition. The externality created by giving non-democratic countries cash issued by democracies can be partially corrected by assessing a unilateral scaling tariff on imports, in proportion to the level of human rights abuses created by the country of origin.
- gm-conspiracy 9y ago
  So, democracies are exempt from human rights abuses? Would you support a tariff on IP exports (music, movies, tv shows)?
- bogomipz 9y ago
  >"Importing goods from non-democratic countries is not an all-or-nothing proposition. The externality created by giving non-democratic countries cash issued by democracies can be partially corrected by assessing a unilateral scaling tariff on imports, in proportion to the level of human rights abuses created by the country of origin." So lets apply that to Chinese imports. Let say that the US places one of the highest tariffs on Chinese imports since its one of the least democratic countries[1]. So China's economy grinds to a halt. But China is one of the largest purchasers of U.S debt so now both China and the U.S economies completely tank[2]. And then that has knock on effect on Africa where China is buying up minerals and investing in infrastructure projects. This would effectively tank the economies of North America, Asia and Africa. Does this still strike you as a viable idea? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index [2] https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355 https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-i...
  - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
    Or China becomes more democratic and implements better worker safety and environmental regulations.
    - pm90 9y ago
      How do you propose that will happen exactly? Democracy is usually born out of stability, not revolution. Honestly, I hope China goes the way of Korea and slowly transitions into a more democratic country, but that is hardly a given. And revolutions in China have a nasty history of leaving millions of people dead/displaced and plunging the country into chaos. edit: after writing this comment, I'm not comfortable with my assertion. Democracy in England was established (or reinforced) after the English Civil War and Glorious Revolutions, democracy in the US after the Revolutionary war and in France after the French Revolution.... so I take that assertion back.
  - michaelt 9y ago
    Does this still strike you as a viable idea? Sure. Just announce the tariff will be phased in at 0.5% per year over 40 years.
    - bogomipz 9y ago
      China had exports of 2.3 trillion dollars in 2016. 16.9% of which was to the US[1]. .5% of trillion is 5 billion. Let's just round down China's exports down to 2 trillion. That means the US would be levying 10 billion dollars in tariffs on China during the first year alone and this would continue to increase for the next 4 decades? How do you imagine China would react to that? Do you imagine a trade war would be good for the world economy? This is the kind of nonsense that Trump was recently spewing during the US election season. You know who's going to actually pay that tariff? The U.S.? They will pay for it in higher prices on goods and perhaps more importantly they will also pay for it in China financing 100s of billions dollars less of U.S debt in the coming decades. That might be the kick in the pants the US needs to get its deficit in order but before wreaking lots of havoc. You realize that China is the United States second largest creditor right? Until very recently they were the United States largest creditor[2]. Yes China finances the United States by buying up U.S Treasuries. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/256591/share-of-chinas-exports-in-gross-domestic-product/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/256591/share-of-chinas-e...
DenisM 9y ago
US is self-sufficient in terms of oil production / consumption.
- ljf 9y ago
  Is it? This (from 2015) suggests this won't happen until 2030 https://www.oilandgas360.com/bp-energy-outlook-united-states-likely-self-sufficient-oil-2030s/ https://www.oilandgas360.com/bp-energy-outlook-united-states... Also: http://crudeoilpeak.info/the-myth-of-us-self-sufficiency-in-crude-oil http://crudeoilpeak.info/the-myth-of-us-self-sufficiency-in-... Would be interested in some numbers that show otherwise.
  - DenisM 9y ago
    You are right, I misinterpreted various news. Thanks for pointing this out.

dvhh 9y ago

Let's not forget the material for our modern age : plastic

ljf 9y ago
Don't forget Fertiliser - comes from gas not oil - but we'd be screwed without it: http://grist.org/article/2010-02-11-tracking-u-s-farmers-supply-nitrogen-fertilizer/ http://grist.org/article/2010-02-11-tracking-u-s-farmers-sup...

redahs 9y ago

Importing goods from non-democratic countries is not an all-or-nothing proposition. The externality created by giving non-democratic countries cash issued by democracies can be partially corrected by assessing a unilateral scaling tariff on imports, in proportion to the level of human rights abuses created by the country of origin.

gm-conspiracy 9y ago
So, democracies are exempt from human rights abuses? Would you support a tariff on IP exports (music, movies, tv shows)?
bogomipz 9y ago
>"Importing goods from non-democratic countries is not an all-or-nothing proposition. The externality created by giving non-democratic countries cash issued by democracies can be partially corrected by assessing a unilateral scaling tariff on imports, in proportion to the level of human rights abuses created by the country of origin." So lets apply that to Chinese imports. Let say that the US places one of the highest tariffs on Chinese imports since its one of the least democratic countries[1]. So China's economy grinds to a halt. But China is one of the largest purchasers of U.S debt so now both China and the U.S economies completely tank[2]. And then that has knock on effect on Africa where China is buying up minerals and investing in infrastructure projects. This would effectively tank the economies of North America, Asia and Africa. Does this still strike you as a viable idea? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index [2] https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355 https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-i...
- ZeroGravitas 9y ago
  Or China becomes more democratic and implements better worker safety and environmental regulations.
  - pm90 9y ago
    How do you propose that will happen exactly? Democracy is usually born out of stability, not revolution. Honestly, I hope China goes the way of Korea and slowly transitions into a more democratic country, but that is hardly a given. And revolutions in China have a nasty history of leaving millions of people dead/displaced and plunging the country into chaos. edit: after writing this comment, I'm not comfortable with my assertion. Democracy in England was established (or reinforced) after the English Civil War and Glorious Revolutions, democracy in the US after the Revolutionary war and in France after the French Revolution.... so I take that assertion back.
- michaelt 9y ago
  Does this still strike you as a viable idea? Sure. Just announce the tariff will be phased in at 0.5% per year over 40 years.
  - bogomipz 9y ago
    China had exports of 2.3 trillion dollars in 2016. 16.9% of which was to the US[1]. .5% of trillion is 5 billion. Let's just round down China's exports down to 2 trillion. That means the US would be levying 10 billion dollars in tariffs on China during the first year alone and this would continue to increase for the next 4 decades? How do you imagine China would react to that? Do you imagine a trade war would be good for the world economy? This is the kind of nonsense that Trump was recently spewing during the US election season. You know who's going to actually pay that tariff? The U.S.? They will pay for it in higher prices on goods and perhaps more importantly they will also pay for it in China financing 100s of billions dollars less of U.S debt in the coming decades. That might be the kick in the pants the US needs to get its deficit in order but before wreaking lots of havoc. You realize that China is the United States second largest creditor right? Until very recently they were the United States largest creditor[2]. Yes China finances the United States by buying up U.S Treasuries. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/256591/share-of-chinas-exports-in-gross-domestic-product/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/256591/share-of-chinas-e...

DenisM 9y ago

US is self-sufficient in terms of oil production / consumption.

ljf 9y ago
Is it? This (from 2015) suggests this won't happen until 2030 https://www.oilandgas360.com/bp-energy-outlook-united-states-likely-self-sufficient-oil-2030s/ https://www.oilandgas360.com/bp-energy-outlook-united-states... Also: http://crudeoilpeak.info/the-myth-of-us-self-sufficiency-in-crude-oil http://crudeoilpeak.info/the-myth-of-us-self-sufficiency-in-... Would be interested in some numbers that show otherwise.
- DenisM 9y ago
  You are right, I misinterpreted various news. Thanks for pointing this out.