4 ms·

Fight the silencing of gun research

3 points by okket 9y ago

DarkKomunalec 9y ago
"And the problem may be worsening. According to one study, the rate of mass shootings tripled between 2011 and 2014 (see go.nature.com/2rkdtaw). During the past decade, gun suicides increased by 30%; gun murders increased by more than 18% from 2014 to 2015; and 2015 saw 2,600 more gun deaths than 2014 (see go.nature.com/2qnp4m2)." Good data is important, so I'm dismayed by this paragraph that reads like straight out of 'How to Lie with Statistics' used to advocate for it: -"rate of mass shootings tripled between 2011 and 2014" - true, but depends on how you define mass shooting [1], and more importantly, mass shootings represent a tiny share of gun crime [1]. -"gun suicides increased by 30%" - regrettable, but should not be conflated with violent crime. -"gun murders increased by more than 18% from 2014 to 2015" - interesting choice of time frame, given that just the previous sentence talked of a 'decade'. Going to the same source they cite, one sees no clear trend for the 2000-2015 range, but looking at the 1981-2010 range [2], gun murders have almost halved. -"and 2015 saw 2,600 more gun deaths than 2014" - despite the word 'and', this is mostly the same data point as above, plus 600 suicides, which were already covered separately. A simple gun homicides vs. time graph would have done much better. Or the violent crime rate in a country that did ban guns, before and after the ban, e.g. http://www.karenselick.com/GunOwnershipViolentCrimeEng.gif http://www.karenselick.com/GunOwnershipViolentCrimeEng.gif I should note, the above is just one of the first few graphs that popped up when searching for gun statistics on google. A comparison of more such cases may well find the UK to be an outlier, and something else caused that increase in crime. Notably, there's a strong correlation between gun deaths and rate of gun ownership in US states, but again, correlation != causation, and rate of gun ownership correlates with all sorts of things. Finally, I'll add that I'm more than a little uncomfortable in using data to curtail freedoms - how many times has freedom of assembly been used to form gangs and plan crimes? Should therefore everyone have to wear ankle monitors? [1] https://www.vox.com/cards/gun-violence-facts/mass-shootings-rare-united-states https://www.vox.com/cards/gun-violence-facts/mass-shootings-... [2] https://www.vox.com/cards/gun-violence-facts/gun-homicide-decline-crime-drop https://www.vox.com/cards/gun-violence-facts/gun-homicide-de...

3 points by okket 9y ago

"And the problem may be worsening. According to one study, the rate of mass shootings tripled between 2011 and 2014 (see go.nature.com/2rkdtaw). During the past decade, gun suicides increased by 30%; gun murders increased by more than 18% from 2014 to 2015; and 2015 saw 2,600 more gun deaths than 2014 (see go.nature.com/2qnp4m2)." Good data is important, so I'm dismayed by this paragraph that reads like straight out of 'How to Lie with Statistics' used to advocate for it: -"rate of mass shootings tripled between 2011 and 2014" - true, but depends on how you define mass shooting [1], and more importantly, mass shootings represent a tiny share of gun crime [1]. -"gun suicides increased by 30%" - regrettable, but should not be conflated with violent crime. -"gun murders increased by more than 18% from 2014 to 2015" - interesting choice of time frame, given that just the previous sentence talked of a 'decade'. Going to the same source they cite, one sees no clear trend for the 2000-2015 range, but looking at the 1981-2010 range [2], gun murders have almost halved. -"and 2015 saw 2,600 more gun deaths than 2014" - despite the word 'and', this is mostly the same data point as above, plus 600 suicides, which were already covered separately. A simple gun homicides vs. time graph would have done much better. Or the violent crime rate in a country that did ban guns, before and after the ban, e.g. http://www.karenselick.com/GunOwnershipViolentCrimeEng.gif http://www.karenselick.com/GunOwnershipViolentCrimeEng.gif I should note, the above is just one of the first few graphs that popped up when searching for gun statistics on google. A comparison of more such cases may well find the UK to be an outlier, and something else caused that increase in crime. Notably, there's a strong correlation between gun deaths and rate of gun ownership in US states, but again, correlation != causation, and rate of gun ownership correlates with all sorts of things. Finally, I'll add that I'm more than a little uncomfortable in using data to curtail freedoms - how many times has freedom of assembly been used to form gangs and plan crimes? Should therefore everyone have to wear ankle monitors? [1] https://www.vox.com/cards/gun-violence-facts/mass-shootings-rare-united-states https://www.vox.com/cards/gun-violence-facts/mass-shootings-... [2] https://www.vox.com/cards/gun-violence-facts/gun-homicide-decline-crime-drop https://www.vox.com/cards/gun-violence-facts/gun-homicide-de...