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A large part of this article discusses future liabilities, but makes no mention of growth. For instance, it says total UK liabilities are 1000 times gdp, but
by shubb 9y ago
A large part of this article discusses future liabilities, but makes no mention of growth.
For instance, it says total UK liabilities are 1000 times gdp, but past gdp growth over the same duration those liabilities are amortised over is 3000%.
Past performance would suggest this seeming over committed will simply be eclipsed.
There is no guarantee gdp will keep going up, either globally or in particular countries, but it does indicate that, growth is the way out and we should places our bets there.
As recent small state low tax economic policy has failed to deliver growth like we saw under bigger state higher tax policy, maybe we'd be richer if we reverted to that.
- bambax 9y agoGrowth is exactly like Jesus. Some people strongly believe it will return, despite strong evidence to the contrary. And we're all cargo-culting around it, changing laws, reducing taxes, opening borders to lure it in, like if growth was a wild animal afraid of fences. Meanwhile, old people live the good life of having revenue without doing anything productive. Good for them, but I'd resent them less if they didn't vote for Trump, May, Le Pen.
- shubb 9y agoNow that's a little pessimistic. Look at the graph: http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1950_2010UKb_11s1li011lcn__UK_Gross_Domestic_Product http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1950_2010UK... Exactly what would make the next decade special compared to the last 5? If lack of growth is unusual then expecting it to return would seem rational. Have faith brother!
- cjg 9y agoThis log version might be better: http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1950_2010UKb_11c1lo011lcn__UK_Gross_Domestic_Product http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1950_2010UK... You can see the S-shape in the curve. We hit peak growth in the 1970s and it has been slowing since.