> China is repeating, almost perfectly, the Japan-scenario, with a similarly predictable outcome. My imperfect understanding of China is stagnation is tantamou

> China is repeating, almost perfectly, the Japan-scenario, with a similarly predictable outcome. My imperfect understanding of China is stagnation is tantamount to ouster of the Politburo members, or at least the Standing Committee; they will go to great lengths to avoid that outcome during their tenure. From what I've read, the population supports the political and economic status quo so long as there is relatively discernible economic improvement decade-over-decade. If that is true, then a 3+ decade stagnation scenario might be difficult to sketch out, though the US middle class is going on 4+ decades of stagnation now [1], so perhaps that same scenario is possible in China, given enough variety of distractions from the general trend line. China's infrastructure build-out will also lag behind the economic effects to follow by many years. I personally think it will eventually prove prescient, creating new markets for China's industrial output in the coming centuries, but it won't come without its own set of challenges. If China pulls a wildcard move like monetizing infrastructure debt, holding out promises of enormous growth on the back of that infrastructure, then they can perhaps forestall stagnation far longer than anyone anticipates currently. [1] I've yet to see a credible rebuttal to the assertion of middle class stagnation that accounts for not just health insurance, land, and education inflation, but also terms and conditions inflation like smaller quantities for same price, or less or lower-quality health insurance coverage for same price, or inferior ingredients substitution for the same price, or better supply chain logistics yet still shipping enriched flour, for example.