That's actually a really good question. But think about what it would mean for any one single individual to be able to answer you. How could they possibly know?

That's actually a really good question. But think about what it would mean for any one single individual to be able to answer you. How could they possibly know? And I don't mean how could the _possibly_ know, I mean _how_ could they possibly know. What would you have to learn, assimilate, and understand before you could be reasonably expected to be able to answer your question? Granted, I could reply like this to any highly complex question but as so many macro-economic questions reduce to this position from what you're asking I think it's justified. Personally, I haven't a clue. What I see is this though. People keep predicting that China's growth is going to hit a wall. But China keeps posting figures (if you can believe them) that point to the inevitable fact that that nation will be by far the largest economy in about a decade. What happens then is anybody's guess. My _feeling_ is that there will be a swing of political power that trails economic power. What we have to figure out is whether this political transition happens relatively peacefully or not. That's the _real_ question I think.