ced - "Bayesian Theory" is more than just a formula, it's a way of thinking. A beautiful book exists on this subject, "Information Theory, Inference and Learni

ced - "Bayesian Theory" is more than just a formula, it's a way of thinking. A beautiful book exists on this subject, "Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms" by David Mackay, which you can read for free online. Granted, the nomenclature is confusing, there is a Bayes formula. [Edit: jey mentioned Jaynes' book. Another excellent reference. Link to chapter in Mackay (http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/mackay/itprnn/ps/22.40.pdf http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/mackay/itprnn/ps/22.40.pdf read from bottom of page 25 on)] In regards to the unsophisticated aspect of startups, I think that much of the low-lying fruit has been picked. Statistical sophistication is but one ladder to the higher fruits. Why? Social websites have enormous databases of information about their users. People who /understand/ data will be able to take social networks to the next level.