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Your bias is causing you to come to some faulty conclusions. I did not quote the number of medallions given out by the city (which by the way is around 7000 [0]
by FullMtlAlcoholc 9y ago
Your bias is causing you to come to some faulty conclusions. I did not quote the number of medallions given out by the city (which by the way is around 7000 [0]). I specifically stated the number of people employed as taxi drivers, which as of Dec 2016, is 9500. [1]
> Most drivers can switch to Uber/Lyft if they have or want to buy their own cars, or get other jobs.
Although some of them can probably use their primary car for Uber/Lyft, many of them will have to take out a loan/increase their debt to get a car they can use for ride-hailing. Perhaps you aren't aware, but losses in sub-prime auto loans have reached their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. Given that taxi drivers make on avg about $35,000, it's safe to assume that many only qualify for subprime and will add to this problem. And this is happening all across the country.
To your other point, get another job: Doubtlessly some people will be able to retrain. Just as surely, a number of people will not be able to adapt. Being a driver is about as low skilled as labor gets, so there are hardly any where their previous experience can transfer. So what jobs? Retail
> Driving a cab wasn't lucrative, the owners of the medallions were the ones reaping the monopoly profits.
The best part of the shattering of these monopolies was the lesson it gives others investing in government shielded businesses.
I don't really care about the superiority of dynamic startups vs government shielded monopolies and honestly I think the financialization/commodification of parts of the economy such that people make bets on things instead of contributing productive value is not a good thing. But I digress, I'm more concerned with the shattered pieces left over in the creative destruction. 9500 formerly employed people with little future job prospects. That is .2% of working adults. It's not a huge amount, but it's not a drop in the bucket, especiallly when the city is again raising taxes and these individuals are going to need government assistance.
As us in the tech industry innovate and move forward, we aren't following the patterns of the past. When software eats industries, it destroys jobs a magnitude more than it creates. Let's be clear, coal isn't coming back and neither is manufacturing (BTW, the US is still the world's 2nd largest manufacturer and the leading advanced manufacturer, a fact that goes unnoticed) I personally don't find meaning or validation in life by having a job, but many do and UBI is a stopgap at best, but we really don't have any other solution at this point. That's what scares me....and people making rhetorical, ideological rants with no regards for facts.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxicabs_of_the_United_States#Chicago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxicabs_of_the_United_States#...
[1] http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-chicago-taxi-driver-decline-met-20161214-story.html http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-chicago-taxi-driver-de...
- valuearb 9y agoNo jobs have been destroyed. Chicago needs roughly the same number of drivers, just more are going to be driving Lyft or Uber in the future than Taxis. Taxi drivers might even do better with Lyft and Uber given they weren't getting any of the monopoly profits for driving. Subprime is less than 20% of car loans, because it's easy to get a car loan if you have good (decent, not great) credit. Car loans are relatively safe because they are collateralized. This is why my bank is offering new and used car loans at 1.99%, and manufacturers/dealers can offer even lower rates. Even with poor credit you can get loans for less than 10%, which is fantastic by historical standards. Even for the drivers who have terrible credit they can get still get a subprime loan and keep driving. Even at absolute worst case 20%, that's $6,000 a year, about $3/hour for a $30k car being used full time for Lift/Uber. Leasing a cab from a medallion holder for one shift a day probably cost close to $10,000 a year. In the case of the sub-prime loan you can refinance when your credit improves or pay it off over time. The Medallion lease costs were forever. And the driver likely can get higher utilization with Uber and Lyft than they ever got with their cabs, so they should be able to make more money.
- FullMtlAlcoholc 9y agoBut the market is already saturated with the top Uber/Lyft drivers who have maintained a rating above 4.0 stars. Do you thhink the growth in ride-hailing will be able to absorb so many people such that drivers are able to maintain the same number of fares/day? I don't have any data on this.