3 ms·
There's a bit of a grades-achievement paradox: 1) Studies show that higher grades lead to higher achievements,[0] 2) Studies of very high achievers show mixed
by brownbat 9y ago
There's a bit of a grades-achievement paradox:
1) Studies show that higher grades lead to higher achievements,[0]
2) Studies of very high achievers show mixed or mediocre grades on average
This article alludes to both of those and then just dismisses the 1st one as not relevant to "true" success, which I think sidesteps a more interesting statistical problem.
Imagine dots plotted along an x-axis of "achievement," and a y-axis of GPA. Can you have a strong positive correlation, but make it so if you sample the far right end of the graph, you get mediocre GPAs?
Sure, there are lots of ways to arrange the data for that effect.
Imagine grades put a floor on your achievement. So you have people with low grades and low achievement, low grades and high achievement, but very rarely high grades and low achievement. So the graph is like a semaphore flag with the lower left corner shaded. There's a correlation, but the right have the graph is still randomly distributed.
Or maybe the correlation is clear, but gradually sloping and the variance is extremely high. So all parts of the graph will tend towards mean GPAs, with the averages creeping up each quadrant.
Or maybe at the very highest levels of success other factors start to dominate (connections, location, luck).
The research gives no real hints as to which of these is true, but I think it's a little early for the article's "just-so" story explanations of high grades leading to docile individuals poorly suited for leadership or greatness. This sounds like the myths about Einstein failed at math in school.[1] There are several millionaires that did fine in school, the data hardly tell us it's impossible to succeed after getting good grades, that's reading too much into the averages. For counterexamples, Gates and Zuckerberg were both admitted to Harvard, ie, probably had above average HS GPAs. Buffett talks up how he was getting low grades at a young age (and stealing!), but then "straightened up" after his dad talked to him, presumably getting better grades in college. Any one of these should be sufficient to disprove the notion that high grades are somehow helpful for most success, but suddenly an obstacle to the highest levels of success.
A more thorough investigation of the 700 surveyed "successful millionaires" would probably reveal more. Maybe a lot of millionaires are harbor pilots, idly drawing an inheritance, or worked their way up from the mailroom, no idea without a closer look.
[0] Aside from passing acknowledgement of this research in the article, it's also covered in more detail here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/20/heres-how-much-your-high-school-grades-predict-how-much-you-make-today/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/20/heres...
[1] http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2011/12/albert-einstein-did-not-fail-at-mathematics-in-school/ http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2011/12/albert-einst...