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The difference is, in the past, there was always something to retrain to, because other industries had opportunities that ultimately balanced everything out. I

The difference is, in the past, there was always something to retrain to, because other industries had opportunities that ultimately balanced everything out. I don't think all the jobs lost to automation are going to have replacements, though, because there will just be less need for employees in general, so the total number of jobs is going to decrease over time.

nostrademons 9y ago
We've been here before too. The Long Depression of 1873-1896 featured similar persistent unemployment and similar secular changes between industries. It happened when the industries of railroads, textiles, mass production, steel, oil, shipping, meat-packing, and mechanized agriculture were growing fast, and in the process completely killing the old trade guilds & professions of coachmen, weavers, artisans, blacksmiths, whalers, sailors, longshoremen, shopkeepers, butchers, and farmers. What we didn't realize then is that all of the great 20th century industries - airlines, airplanes, automobiles, trucking, radio, television, department stores, plastics, household appliances, department stores, electronics, computers - had yet to be invented. They couldn't be, until enough labor had been freed up from their previous jobs that they were ready & willing to take up jobs building new things. We're at a similar point in history now: the new technology has eaten the old, but hasn't yet invented the world that we will live in afterwards. It's a dangerous & turbulent time to be in, because most people don't deal well with change, but historically, predictions of the end of history have always been false.
- RussianCow 9y ago
  But many (most?) of the jobs created by airlines, radio, etc, have a low barrier to entry and are easily replaceable. I could be wrong since I don't know what technological breakthroughs will come in the next few decades, but my educated guess is that the new wave of job opportunities will be much more specialized and require higher levels of education, like engineers and scientists. And aside from the sheer difficulty of transitioning into that kind of a career without prior education/experience in the relevant field(s), it's unlikely that the market will need as many people to fill those shoes. So even if everyone that holds an obsolete job now could make the transition, there wouldn't be enough market demand for all of them to find jobs. Again, this is all speculative, but I just don't see a likely scenario in which enough low-level jobs are created to replace the ones that are lost to technology and automation.
  - joejerryronnie 9y ago
    I just had a terrifying vision of a post-automation, dystopian society where the non-specialized humans are relegated to selling the only thing they have left. I'm picturing various occupations such as jacking in your neural shunt so that a portion of your brain activity can be crowdsourced for altcoin mining, or Dune style Axlotl tanks birthing organ replacements.
- Bakary 9y ago
  To paraphrase Bertrand Russell, a turkey can think the farmer is its best friend for months, until Thanksgiving comes along. We already live in a society that is anomalous compared to the long stretch of history that came before it, with tech progress starting to look like an exponential curve. On this basis, it seems pretty bold to reason by induction like the delicious turkey mentioned above. Perhaps predictions of the end of history have always been false, but it only takes one instance. Even if it doesn't happen, there can still be a massive wave of human misery to deal with.

nostrademons 9y ago

We've been here before too. The Long Depression of 1873-1896 featured similar persistent unemployment and similar secular changes between industries. It happened when the industries of railroads, textiles, mass production, steel, oil, shipping, meat-packing, and mechanized agriculture were growing fast, and in the process completely killing the old trade guilds & professions of coachmen, weavers, artisans, blacksmiths, whalers, sailors, longshoremen, shopkeepers, butchers, and farmers. What we didn't realize then is that all of the great 20th century industries - airlines, airplanes, automobiles, trucking, radio, television, department stores, plastics, household appliances, department stores, electronics, computers - had yet to be invented. They couldn't be, until enough labor had been freed up from their previous jobs that they were ready & willing to take up jobs building new things. We're at a similar point in history now: the new technology has eaten the old, but hasn't yet invented the world that we will live in afterwards. It's a dangerous & turbulent time to be in, because most people don't deal well with change, but historically, predictions of the end of history have always been false.

RussianCow 9y ago
But many (most?) of the jobs created by airlines, radio, etc, have a low barrier to entry and are easily replaceable. I could be wrong since I don't know what technological breakthroughs will come in the next few decades, but my educated guess is that the new wave of job opportunities will be much more specialized and require higher levels of education, like engineers and scientists. And aside from the sheer difficulty of transitioning into that kind of a career without prior education/experience in the relevant field(s), it's unlikely that the market will need as many people to fill those shoes. So even if everyone that holds an obsolete job now could make the transition, there wouldn't be enough market demand for all of them to find jobs. Again, this is all speculative, but I just don't see a likely scenario in which enough low-level jobs are created to replace the ones that are lost to technology and automation.
- joejerryronnie 9y ago
  I just had a terrifying vision of a post-automation, dystopian society where the non-specialized humans are relegated to selling the only thing they have left. I'm picturing various occupations such as jacking in your neural shunt so that a portion of your brain activity can be crowdsourced for altcoin mining, or Dune style Axlotl tanks birthing organ replacements.
Bakary 9y ago
To paraphrase Bertrand Russell, a turkey can think the farmer is its best friend for months, until Thanksgiving comes along. We already live in a society that is anomalous compared to the long stretch of history that came before it, with tech progress starting to look like an exponential curve. On this basis, it seems pretty bold to reason by induction like the delicious turkey mentioned above. Perhaps predictions of the end of history have always been false, but it only takes one instance. Even if it doesn't happen, there can still be a massive wave of human misery to deal with.