Clickbait title for a naive look at a pretty well-understood, much-scrutinized topic. Digging in further: - assumptions are bad. 7-8% in RE / public equities

Clickbait title for a naive look at a pretty well-understood, much-scrutinized topic. Digging in further: - assumptions are bad. 7-8% in RE / public equities? Hmm, dubious. - poor understanding of TVM. 12% is 3x? Except, in the real world, there are incremental cash flows on both capital calls and returns ... so IRR. - completely ignores cyclicality. Vintage year is the single biggest determinant of venture performance. One big plus: takes a bit of the wind out of the "we VCs are paid to take risks" strutting. Of course, professional VCs gauge risks and make informed bets. But as the author points out, it's mostly with other peoples' money. True. Entrepreneurs are the ones taking the real, personal risks.