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One obvious issue with this post is that it uses historical S&P500 returns from a period of high performance. To be predictive, it would have been helpful to al
by rphlx 9y ago
One obvious issue with this post is that it uses historical S&P500 returns from a period of high performance. To be predictive, it would have been helpful to also examine expected future returns for the next 10-20 years, which are generally considered to be lower (based on valuation metrics such as mkt cap to GDP, P/B, CAPE10, etc). To put a number on that, perhaps 4-6% nominal, instead of 7%+ from 1993-2017.
It would have been helpful to model tax effects as well. Those generally do favor investment over labor, but with a positive first derivative (the top US cap gains tax rates are rising much faster than labor rates, e.g. from 15% to 23.8% from 2012 to 2017).