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Those same polls predicted brexit would not happen and Clinton would win. I fear May will get the majority yet again. For a lot of people, her calls to essentia
by roryisok 9y ago
Those same polls predicted brexit would not happen and Clinton would win. I fear May will get the majority yet again. For a lot of people, her calls to essentially end cryptography will be seen as "doing something", and they will blindly vote for her.
- sangnoir 9y ago> Those same polls predicted brexit would not happen and Clinton would win You say it like it's a major indictment - people just don't understand probability and low probability events occur all the damn time. On the flip-side people also play the lottery. A lot of factors contribute to poll errors: sample group is never perfectly representative of actual voters, people lying on their voting intention if they feel it's not socially accepted, &tc. That does not make polls worthless.
- cmurf 9y agoNo that's not true. The polls were within the margin of error. The polls were exactly right. The problem is the result landed within the margin of error, that the predicted error itself meant it wasn't possible to know with any certainty what was going to happen.
- vidarh 9y agoI too fear she will win again, but the poll improvements for Corbyn are several times the margin of error, while as others have pointed out, the Clinton/Trump result was within the margin of error.