4 ms·

Anyone with a bit of insight into ME politics know if this is a big deal?

forkLding 9y ago
Lived there (Bahrain) for 12 years, this is pretty big deal, you have to take this in context of both religious and location-wise, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia are literally within 25 min to max. 2hrs flight from Qatar. This is similar to Germany and several European countries suddenly declaring that France should be kicked out of the European Union and cutting off ties. As well, a lot of business and trade happens between the Gulf countries which is pretty much put to a stop right now. My family has business in both Qatar and Bahrain and they're very much wondering what to do. Moreover, religious-wise, I'm not too familiar with Qatar, but I believe they would have a similar system to Bahrain where the rich 10% are Sunni and the poor 90% are Shia left over from the colonial days.
- _nedR 9y ago
  This is incorrect. Only 10% of Qatari muslims are Shia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Qatar#Shia_Islam https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Qatar#Shia_Islam
  - forkLding 9y ago
    I meant the minority 10% who are usually rich vs the majority 90% who are usually poor that have different cultural or religious scenarios
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
Lanthanide 9y ago
Saudi here; It's too early to tell. This is not the first schism in the GCC involving Qatar, but it's the one that's amped up the fastest. There's a lot of dynamics involved here both overt and those left unsaid. 1: The possibility of a Qatar-Iran rapprochement. I don't think it was ever likely but rather was a political manouver by Qatar that got out of hand, particularly after Trump's very recent visit and his attitudes towards the Iran deal. The reason why this would be a big deal is not regional power flexing or the usual cross-gulf shitslinging, but rather that Qatar worries about being overshadowed in political affairs by Saudi, and Saudi worrying about the possibility of increasing influence of Iran within the GCC and OPEC. The irony, of course, is that the fear of GCC disintegration by Iran sowing disunity might cause disintegration... 2: The Muslim Brotherhood. Despite generally aligned political and theological views, UAE+Saudi are really at odds here. They views the MB as a populist force that aims to undermine the government and to covertly back more extreme Islamist factions in pursuit of that("enemy of my enemy...), and to create parallel structures in governments to advance their cause. Qatar views them as a useful tool, giving them somewhat safe harbor and the inclination of AlJazeera, one of the region's strongest media conglomerates. This came in useful in Libya and for relations with the Palestinian Authority and Turkey, but it can backfire quickly. 3: The possibility of normalization of relations with Israel. Probably more of a PR jab than a real issue, but it's one that's somewhat salient for the general public. What would all this amount to? Probably not much, you'll notice that Kuwait is absent from that list and the likely reason is that they're being used as a backchannel. This altercation has been remarkably public in the popular media here (despite not being popular per se) so odds are all sides want this to be over ASAP.
infodroid 9y ago
Although not specific to Middle East politics: cutting all diplomatic ties with a country, closing all the land/sea/air borders with it, banning travel to it, and expelling all its citizens, not just the diplomats... This all sounds like a precursor to war. And then add to that the accusation of "supporting terrorism", a claim that is nowadays used as a pretext to justify military action. Seems like a fairly big deal.

Lived there (Bahrain) for 12 years, this is pretty big deal, you have to take this in context of both religious and location-wise, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia are literally within 25 min to max. 2hrs flight from Qatar. This is similar to Germany and several European countries suddenly declaring that France should be kicked out of the European Union and cutting off ties. As well, a lot of business and trade happens between the Gulf countries which is pretty much put to a stop right now. My family has business in both Qatar and Bahrain and they're very much wondering what to do. Moreover, religious-wise, I'm not too familiar with Qatar, but I believe they would have a similar system to Bahrain where the rich 10% are Sunni and the poor 90% are Shia left over from the colonial days.

_nedR 9y ago
This is incorrect. Only 10% of Qatari muslims are Shia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Qatar#Shia_Islam https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Qatar#Shia_Islam
- forkLding 9y ago
  I meant the minority 10% who are usually rich vs the majority 90% who are usually poor that have different cultural or religious scenarios
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

Lanthanide 9y ago

Saudi here; It's too early to tell. This is not the first schism in the GCC involving Qatar, but it's the one that's amped up the fastest. There's a lot of dynamics involved here both overt and those left unsaid. 1: The possibility of a Qatar-Iran rapprochement. I don't think it was ever likely but rather was a political manouver by Qatar that got out of hand, particularly after Trump's very recent visit and his attitudes towards the Iran deal. The reason why this would be a big deal is not regional power flexing or the usual cross-gulf shitslinging, but rather that Qatar worries about being overshadowed in political affairs by Saudi, and Saudi worrying about the possibility of increasing influence of Iran within the GCC and OPEC. The irony, of course, is that the fear of GCC disintegration by Iran sowing disunity might cause disintegration... 2: The Muslim Brotherhood. Despite generally aligned political and theological views, UAE+Saudi are really at odds here. They views the MB as a populist force that aims to undermine the government and to covertly back more extreme Islamist factions in pursuit of that("enemy of my enemy...), and to create parallel structures in governments to advance their cause. Qatar views them as a useful tool, giving them somewhat safe harbor and the inclination of AlJazeera, one of the region's strongest media conglomerates. This came in useful in Libya and for relations with the Palestinian Authority and Turkey, but it can backfire quickly. 3: The possibility of normalization of relations with Israel. Probably more of a PR jab than a real issue, but it's one that's somewhat salient for the general public. What would all this amount to? Probably not much, you'll notice that Kuwait is absent from that list and the likely reason is that they're being used as a backchannel. This altercation has been remarkably public in the popular media here (despite not being popular per se) so odds are all sides want this to be over ASAP.

infodroid 9y ago

Although not specific to Middle East politics: cutting all diplomatic ties with a country, closing all the land/sea/air borders with it, banning travel to it, and expelling all its citizens, not just the diplomats... This all sounds like a precursor to war. And then add to that the accusation of "supporting terrorism", a claim that is nowadays used as a pretext to justify military action. Seems like a fairly big deal.