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While I believe in generalization as a useful tool, your final questions were useful exercises. For the sake of others, my research suggests the following: 1.

While I believe in generalization as a useful tool, your final questions were useful exercises. For the sake of others, my research suggests the following: 1. Countries involved in active conflicts with over 100 deaths/year include Somalia, Kenya, Nigeria (x2), Cameroon, Niger (x2), Chad, Sudan (x3), Libya, Egypt (x2), South Sudan, Ethiopia (x3), Democratic Republic of the Congo (x2), Burundi (x4), Algeria, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Central African Republic, Mali, and Mozambique. This is 21 or so separate conflicts in 19 of the 54 countries. (There are at least 8 smaller conflicts involving 4 more countries.) 2. In the last 20 years, there have been notable famines threatening Sudan, Ethiopia (x2), Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger (x2), Chad, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, and Burkina Faso. At present, there appears to only be one famine, affecting half of South Sudan. All in all, it appears that the expected number of active conflicts per country per year is 40--50%, and the expected number of countries involved in famines (again per country per year) is 1--1.5%.

sangnoir 9y ago
I think your definition of armed conflict is more expansive than mine, because my research[1][2] says 16 African countries have ongoing countries. This works out to just under 30%. Perhaps you were counting belligerent nations rather than countries where conflicts occur as I was. If I were to calculate by actual geographic area,my guess is I would be well under 7% of inhabited regions, and < 1% of African population directly affected. I too was guilty of generalization as we when I asked about countries involved because the conflicts are highly localized, it's never the entire country that's a warzone (excepting Somalia). Bonus 2-part question:A) What is the current total number of African warlords? [Thanks Hollywood] B) what is the probability that a random African resides in an area controlled by a warlord? 1. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-wars-ravaging-africa-2016-14993 http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-wars-ravaging-... 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Africa https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Africa
- areyousure 9y ago
  I both gave my definition of conflict (100 deaths/year) and a list of the countries involved, so it should be trivial to compare details. The difference is likely due to Kenya (which had more than 100 deaths in 2016 related to Somalia), Burkina Faso and Tunisia (which had a combined ~100 related to the insurgency in Algeria/the Maghreb), and/or Mozambique (which had over 100 related to RENAMO). I do think it'd be interesting to estimate the percent of the population affected.
- areyousure 9y ago
  > my guess is ... < 1% of African population directly affected I have done some research into the proportion of the population affected. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 1% of the population of Africa is a "person of concern" originating from just five of the ongoing conflicts in Africa: Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, DRC, and Somalia. All in all, it appears that about 1.6% of the population of Africa is a "person of concern" of the UNHCR. The majority of this population is in the class "internally displaced persons (IDPs) protected/assisted by UNHCR, including people in IDP-like situations". See http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/overview http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/overview for numbers from the end of 2015 on a map, or http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/statistics/unhcrstats/58aa8f247/mid-year-trends-june-2016.html http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/statistics/unhcrstats/58aa8f247/m... for numbers from mid-2016 in table form (with a downloadable attachment).

sangnoir 9y ago

I think your definition of armed conflict is more expansive than mine, because my research[1][2] says 16 African countries have ongoing countries. This works out to just under 30%. Perhaps you were counting belligerent nations rather than countries where conflicts occur as I was. If I were to calculate by actual geographic area,my guess is I would be well under 7% of inhabited regions, and < 1% of African population directly affected. I too was guilty of generalization as we when I asked about countries involved because the conflicts are highly localized, it's never the entire country that's a warzone (excepting Somalia). Bonus 2-part question:A) What is the current total number of African warlords? [Thanks Hollywood] B) what is the probability that a random African resides in an area controlled by a warlord? 1. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-wars-ravaging-africa-2016-14993 http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-wars-ravaging-... 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Africa https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Africa

areyousure 9y ago
I both gave my definition of conflict (100 deaths/year) and a list of the countries involved, so it should be trivial to compare details. The difference is likely due to Kenya (which had more than 100 deaths in 2016 related to Somalia), Burkina Faso and Tunisia (which had a combined ~100 related to the insurgency in Algeria/the Maghreb), and/or Mozambique (which had over 100 related to RENAMO). I do think it'd be interesting to estimate the percent of the population affected.
areyousure 9y ago
> my guess is ... < 1% of African population directly affected I have done some research into the proportion of the population affected. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 1% of the population of Africa is a "person of concern" originating from just five of the ongoing conflicts in Africa: Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, DRC, and Somalia. All in all, it appears that about 1.6% of the population of Africa is a "person of concern" of the UNHCR. The majority of this population is in the class "internally displaced persons (IDPs) protected/assisted by UNHCR, including people in IDP-like situations". See http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/overview http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/overview for numbers from the end of 2015 on a map, or http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/statistics/unhcrstats/58aa8f247/mid-year-trends-june-2016.html http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/statistics/unhcrstats/58aa8f247/m... for numbers from mid-2016 in table form (with a downloadable attachment).