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You have to realize how Trump thinks. Everything is about him. If a deal doesn't make him personally look good, it's a bad deal. The Paris climate accord mig
by beloch 9y ago
You have to realize how Trump thinks. Everything is about him. If a deal doesn't make him personally look good, it's a bad deal. The Paris climate accord might be an objectively good thing, but signing it would make Trump look bad because he made an election promise not to sign it. Hence, it's not "fair" to the U.S.. However, if Trump can somehow make it look like he personally renegotiated the accord to get the U.S. a better "deal", then he can sign it because it'll make him look good.
The problem with the Paris climate accord is that it's vague and lacks any kind of enforcement. Everybody's signing it because there really is no concrete obligation attached. While some signatories may have signed it in earnest, others likely signed it just to look good. They'll announce a plan to meet the goals of the accord and then leave implementing that plan up to their successors, or just forget about it if they happen to remain in office. Look good now, don't pay later.
Given the nature of the Paris accord, there really is no better deal for Trump to negotiate. There are no binding terms to haggle over. I suppose they could change something in the deal just so Trump can say he did it and sign a "good deal". That's probably the best outcome.
- jahnu 9y agoThere is in fact a ratchet mechanism in it. It's not a useless accord at all and those who think they can just pretend they will follow it may be in for a shock. Especially once enough signatories give it momentum. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-ratchet-mechanism-within-the-paris-climate-deal https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-ratchet-mechanism-...
- Sunset 9y agoWow, literally five year plans and out-virtue signaling one another who will craft more draconian regulations to warp the market.
- oblio 9y agoDo you think all our problems have been solved by market forces? Especially things which we can't afford to solve in 50-60 years?
- beloch 9y agoThe problem with the ratchet mechanism is that it will almost unavoidably lead to goals that are utterly divorced from reality. e.g. A nation will propose an INDC it thinks it can realistically achieve. It will be informed it's INDC is inadequate and that "more ambition is needed". So, they'll be forced to adopt an INDC that is not realistic. They'll fail to implement this, but they still won't be able to create a realistic INDC for their next five year period. Even after submitting an INDC they know they have no hope of implementing the country will likely be informed, once again, that "more ambition is needed". Here's the thing. While the INDC's will steadily climb in their ambition, everything I've read indicates that there is no enforcement mechanism to see that they are implemented. In this sense it's Kyoto all over again. However, if the goals are too far out of reach, will we even try to reach them? If you have information to the contrary, I'd love to see it.