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Trump once again shows he's a political savant. This was the obvious move for someone who cares more about power than doing the right thing: he delivered a camp

Trump once again shows he's a political savant. This was the obvious move for someone who cares more about power than doing the right thing: he delivered a campaign promise, he appears strong to his supporters, he gives congressional Republicans something they want and at the same time acquires a bargaining chip with Europe and China that he can cash in later. It takes four years to unwind, so there isn't even much damage and he can announce some new deal right before he's up for election. By dragging the decision out for a week he also distracted from any ongoing talk about Russia etc. Kind of a classic agency problem: this is good for him, bad for the rest of the world.

ygfvvhygvn 9y ago
I agree. Also the covfefe thing was such a blatant distraction and the left took the bait with pride.
- glangdale 9y ago
  Just, no. It is clear: he's an idiot with the attention span of a 3 year-old. He's not a masterful schemer whose every move is carefully calibrated for strategic success. These narratives about how it's all part of a cunning plan are just ridiculous. Sometimes floundering is just floundering.
  - rvdavis 9y ago
    If he's a 3 year old floundering idiot, what does that make his political opponents who he continues to trounce?
    - sslayer 9y ago
      You ever see a 3yo fight a 2yo?
    - m_fayer 9y ago
      He's a 3 year old floundering idiot who happened to be at the right place at the right time.
    - pasquinelli 9y ago
      His job isn't to trounce oppinents, and ut's his job he's floundering at.
    - nerfhammer 9y ago
      Victims of propaganda
    - Veen 9y ago
      Reasonableness, rationality, diplomacy, civilization — these are fragile and require the good faith cooperation of intelligent people to have any effect on the world and to overcome our natural tendencies for selfish blinkered tribalism. An angry and selfish man with power can easily destroy the careful work of decades (or centuries). That doesn't make him smart or right.
      - maxlybbert 9y ago
        Ah yes, "my side is too nice to get anything done." It comes up in politics all the time. I've heard the claim since Reagan was in office. I've never believed it. --- The biggest problem in the US is that currently neither party has a convincing majority. During the Depression, Democrats held something like 75% of the Senate. When FDR tried to pack the Supreme Court, the Republicans had no ability to stop it and had to rely on Democratic senators to decide it looked bad. Today all politicians know that government control can change drastically in the next election, which gives a lot of hope to the guys out of power that if they slow things down just a little longer they'll achieve their wildest dreams, and a lot of fear for the guys in power that if they don't get what they want today they may not get another chance tomorrow.
        Veen 9y ago
        I think you have misread what I said. There are brutish, stupid, and venal wreckers at both ends of the political spectrum. There are intelligent, careful, and thoughtful conservatives and socialists. Donald Trump and his followers are not among them. It's only the deeply fucked up political situation in the US that lead to conservatives (those interested in conserving the good that has been achieved) to support a person like Trump. Political effectiveness divorced from thoughtfulness and respect is not desirable.
  - ygfvvhygvn 9y ago
    Did you not see the front page of reddit? The Russia scandal was completely gone and there was nothing but confeve memes as far as the eye could see. Don't let your irrational hatred of a man cloud your judgement. The fact that you are so easily duped by such a simple juke... literally 7 jabs of his thumb, should warn you that you need to spend some time in self reflection
    - astronautjones 9y ago
      How relevant do you think the front page of reddit is to reality?
      - ryanx435 9y ago
        A lot it's the 5th largest website in the usa.
        Noseshine 9y ago
        With a demographic that is the inverse of the "voter turnout by age" graphic though [0]. [0] http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics
        braderhart 9y ago
        So it is likely to be infiltrated with marketing disguised as news & comments. Lots of agendas. Not sure it is as relevant as you think.
        luca_ing 9y ago
        Reddit as a whole, sure. The front page itself though? I don't know how others use it, but my frontpage is populated by my favourite subreddits, which are luckily mostly free of politics. TBH I have no idea how the majority use Reddit, but don't confuse the front page with all of Reddit. (As a side note, yesterday I went on /r/The_Donald out of morbid curiosity. I'm not sure what I expected, but it was rather shocking).
  - fivestar 9y ago
    The Trump bashing on HN is idiotic. He's not a genius, but he's not stupid, either. I'd put him dead average intelligence-wise. Like all of us, he has his good points and bad. He's human. What I like about him is that he's not a slick, polished, lying politician and you can tell and it matters. He reminds me a lot of Reagan.
origami777 9y ago
That's a best case scenario way to look at this. I agree with you on how this looks to his base, and what it gives other Republicans. We all know his base will support him on anything so that isn't saying much. And the Republican party is going to ride this train to get as much as they can until it crashes. I'm not so sure how it helps him with Europe and China. What are your thoughts there? IMO his foreign relations have been a disaster. I think the only country he has good relations with is Russia. Everyone else is laughing at him. This also continues the polarization of the nation, which, I guess can be good for him but that's still TBD. And only someone with a gold fish's memory would let this distract them from the Russian thing. I tend to cringe whenever intelligence is assigned to the man, but I know that's wrong and I should be more open minded.
- fivestar 9y ago
  Who is laughing? The Europeans are scared because their lousy, undemocratic union is falling apart.
- MadSax 9y ago
  Vice, meet Versa.
DiNovi 9y ago
this is super backward; 30% of people approved of pulling out. It doesnt win him any support at all. Shocks me people think these things mean he can read a room.
- wernercd 9y ago
  I bet it's brought to you by the same polling place that gave Hillary a 96% chance of winning... What percentage of people have a clue of WTF the Paris Agreement is? What effects it will HONESTLY have? The difference between this "Accord" and an actual Treaty? Right now, 99% of what's on the news is My Team vs Your Team. Republicans Defending. Democrats Attacking. No knowledge of what's actually going on. Trump could hire Hillary to replace Comey, create peace in the middle east and give everyone a new car... and the Left would demonize him for all of it.
  - elandybarr 9y ago
    Yep. I am in some tech and business world Slack groups where people were similarly ecstatic about the news. Getting out of your own filter bubbles from time-to-time is healthy.
    - DiNovi 9y ago
      your anecdote is the opposite of your recommendation... brain explodes
      - elandybarr 9y ago
        Why? I'm here and in other places with views counter to mine. There are a lot of tech for Trump folks that just keep their heads down at their jobs because they don't want the drama.
        metafunctor 9y ago
        There are a lot of anti-Trump folks who, too, keep their heads down because they don't want the drama. Or are you suggesting that pro-Trump people are some kind of a silent majority?
fivestar 9y ago
I don't see it that way. I see Trump as a true populist and for the first time in my life I feel like regular people have a voice. Maybe it's all fake, but that's how I see it. Laugh all you want to. Trump has been remarkably consistent in his application of policy so far, despite being called a flip-flopper and all the ridiculous and petty non-scandals that the media and leftist operatives have dreamed up. I'm rooting for the guy. People need to start seeing past their own ideological lens and realize there is more going on than the simplistic narratives and identity politics that the media manipulates the masses with.
rtpg 9y ago
"Trump is so bad he's good" is a tired take at this point. Polling shows that the Russian story is basically resonating with Democrats, but not doing much on the other side of the aisle (granted, Republicans stayed with Nixon up until almost-impeachment...) Paris has broad bi-partisan support. "Let's distract from the Russia issue by something that people actually care about" is not the best strategy is it? Think about the absolutely massive bad press AHCA has generated, combine that with the fact that Paris is only symbolism, and you have a political move with bad optics and no effect on reality. A global minimum if I've seen one (if you have enough cognitive dissonance to think AHCA isn't a massive mess). The problem with "Trump is a political savant" is that it's indistinguishable from the "Trump has severe ADD and just does whatever comes up" narrative. EDIT: check weather.com (at least the US site). When your political move make a meteorological site go full-monty on you, maybe you've generated a couple problems.
- aklsjdalksdjk 9y ago
  > Polling shows that the Russian story is basically resonating with Democrats, but not doing much on the other side of the aisle (granted, Republicans stayed with Nixon up until almost-impeachment...) what does it matter who is resonates with if there so far is no real evidence of wrongdoing? > The problem with "Trump is a political savant" is that it's indistinguishable from the "Trump has severe ADD and just does whatever comes up" narrative. My guess is that you, like many others, didn't watch his entire speech today nor dissect the reasons he is leaving the non-binding accord. I'd love to hear actual rebuttals on his reasoning rather than tireless critiques of his character. It's old, it's boring, it's why he will win in 2020. He is a bold leader that is making good on his campaign promises, all of them, something I can't remember a single politician doing in my lifetime.
- 89tweuiojsdk 9y ago
  > Polling shows that the Russian story is basically resonating with Democrats, but not doing much on the other side of the aisle (granted, Republicans stayed with Nixon up until almost-impeachment...) What does it matter who is resonates with if there so far is no real evidence of wrongdoing? > The problem with "Trump is a political savant" is that it's indistinguishable from the "Trump has severe ADD and just does whatever comes up" narrative. My guess is that you, like many others, didn't watch his entire speech today nor dissect the reasons he is leaving the non-binding accord. I'd love to hear actual rebuttals on his reasoning rather than tireless critiques of his character. It's old, it's boring, it's why he will win in 2020. He is a bold leader that is making good on his campaign promises, all of them, something I can't remember a single politician doing in my lifetime. Whether or not his policies will manifest in the way he envisions, it's still refreshing.
flexie 9y ago
He didn't acquire a single bargaining chip. If anything, he handed Europe, China, India bargaining chips. Trump is in for a rough time next time he tries to negotiate anything internationally, now when he has shown that he backs out of what many regard as a very important international agreement just 2 years after it was reached. And on yet another issue, Trump shows the world that America is no longer taking the lead. Positioning yourself with Syria and Nicaragua is not taking the lead. He has put America last. And I doubt it will be without repercussions from other nations. In the coming weeks we will see how there will be calls in Europe for blocking America in all kind of other international cooperation, including trade deals.
- aaronbrethorst 9y ago
  To be fair, Nicaragua only refused to sign on to Paris because they didn't think it went far enough.
- nickik 9y ago
  > Trump is in for a rough time next time he tries to negotiate anything internationally Yeah because China, India and everybody else are totally willing to sacrifices other deals because they are unhappy about this climate deal. I think you vastly overestimate the importance of this deal to the governments around the world. > And on yet another issue, Trump shows the world that America is no longer taking the lead. He was the first to leave. So he is taking the lead at something.
  - rsynnott 9y ago
    > Yeah because China, India and everybody else are totally willing to sacrifices other deals because they are unhappy about this climate deal. It's not a case of unhappiness over this deal. It's a matter of trust. The US pushes for this deal for years, then abruptly abandons it. So, next time the US pushes for a deal, who's going to believe it? This will absolutely increase the caution with which countries reach deals with the US. As it should.
    - nickik 9y ago
glenndebacker 9y ago
"time acquires a bargaining chip with Europe" Yeah good luck with that. Maybe I'm living in a parallel Europe but that is not what I'm reading in the European newspapers this morning. Trump is loathed here and the notion of always cooperating with (our "friend") the US is sinking extremely fast, politically and also in the mind of the general people. I can't comment for all EU countries, but the view of the US is rather negatively here. And honestly why would we? While a lot of EU leaders are publicly outraged, the fact that the US is more and more turning back into the dark ages gives a lot of possibilities for other countries. That void needs and will be filled in by others. For me there is a silver lining here.
- candu 9y ago
  This. There's no global bargaining chip to be gained here: if anything, the rest of the world has now fully realized that American exceptionalism is in rapid decline. Witness, for instance, the global reaction to Trump's decision, which has essentially been "that's nice, we'll stick with the agreement". This looks less like a savvy political move and more like a petulant child lashing out because Germany stated the US can't be completely trusted anymore. Maybe this will garner some points with his most fervent backers, but that set's growing smaller by the day. The most charitable spin I can think to put on this is that he made an enormously risky bet on a) the rise of populism in Europe and b) the ability of America to cash in on its supposed position of leadership. Turns out a) failed and b) is worth less than we imagined.
  - leereeves 9y ago
    > that's nice, we'll stick with the agreement The developing countries that (collectively) expect to receive $100 billion per year under the agreement would stick with it under any conditions. How will that work now? Will Europe be paying that on their own?
- ForRealsies 9y ago
  >There are several big reasons why Europe's politicians, and career bureaucrats from all over the developed world, love to focus on climate change. First and foremost, it's one of those problems that's hard to define. They even changed the name of the problem from "global warming" to "climate change" to further muddy those waters. In other words, any politician claiming that he's made a dent in the climate change problem is pretty hard to refute while any politician claiming her opponent has failed to make real climate change progress is similarly hard to debunk. Meanwhile, a growing number of career bureaucrats get to keep on "working" for environmental improvements with almost no accountability. Compared to the war on terror, which does demand more tangible results, this is a much more politically pliable issue. For the political class, this is a win/win in perpetuity. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/30/trump-threatens-the-failing-european-political-class-commentary.html http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/30/trump-threatens-the-failing-e...
tanilama 9y ago
> at the same time acquires a bargaining chip with Europe and China that he can cash in later Bargain with your credibility? I don't think that will work, though. One of Trump's strategy is put something that has been agreed upon on the table again, in the name of renegotiation. For other countries, it might be same thing as, blackmailing. How do you know Trump or his successor will play the same trick again and again? Credibility is simply something you cannot game. This will cast a long term shadow on US's reputation if a contract can last no longer than 4 years. Trump's America will still, be treated seriously, not as revered leader, but a unpredictable danger.
_Codemonkeyism 9y ago
I don't think this helps with negotiations or anyone wants to negotiate anything with Trump. The US will be sidelines in all future talks. To Europe and China the US looks like it can't be argued with. For many the US has become a pariah state.
lph 9y ago
Oh, bullshit. We've been hearing about how Trump is playing n-dimensional chess since before the election, but I think it has to be crystal clear by now that he's just a confused old racist with the attention span of a wolverine on speed who is going to do the absolute stupidest thing at every possible opportunity. Yes, he did this to fire up the most rabid corner of his base, but he did so without having any real understanding of the consequences, probably at the behest of Bannon and the Kochs.
- davidsong 9y ago
  This is inflammatory and contributes very little, it doesn't really belong here.
Melk 9y ago
I expected better from HN. Don't know why really.
rbehrends 9y ago
> acquires a bargaining chip with Europe and China that he can cash in later. Not really. There's nothing that he acquires by leaving a non-binding, aspirational agreement other than burning goodwill in effigy. What this means to the rest of the world is that the US cannot even be assumed to abide by voluntary agreements where it can unilaterally declare how much it actually wishes to contribute. The message that the EU/China are getting is either that they're being given the middle finger for purposes of jingoistic posturing or that Trump doesn't actually understand how the Paris agreement works.

ygfvvhygvn 9y ago

I agree. Also the covfefe thing was such a blatant distraction and the left took the bait with pride.

glangdale 9y ago
Just, no. It is clear: he's an idiot with the attention span of a 3 year-old. He's not a masterful schemer whose every move is carefully calibrated for strategic success. These narratives about how it's all part of a cunning plan are just ridiculous. Sometimes floundering is just floundering.
- rvdavis 9y ago
  If he's a 3 year old floundering idiot, what does that make his political opponents who he continues to trounce?
  - sslayer 9y ago
    You ever see a 3yo fight a 2yo?
  - m_fayer 9y ago
    He's a 3 year old floundering idiot who happened to be at the right place at the right time.
  - pasquinelli 9y ago
    His job isn't to trounce oppinents, and ut's his job he's floundering at.
  - nerfhammer 9y ago
    Victims of propaganda
  - Veen 9y ago
    Reasonableness, rationality, diplomacy, civilization — these are fragile and require the good faith cooperation of intelligent people to have any effect on the world and to overcome our natural tendencies for selfish blinkered tribalism. An angry and selfish man with power can easily destroy the careful work of decades (or centuries). That doesn't make him smart or right.
    - maxlybbert 9y ago
      Ah yes, "my side is too nice to get anything done." It comes up in politics all the time. I've heard the claim since Reagan was in office. I've never believed it. --- The biggest problem in the US is that currently neither party has a convincing majority. During the Depression, Democrats held something like 75% of the Senate. When FDR tried to pack the Supreme Court, the Republicans had no ability to stop it and had to rely on Democratic senators to decide it looked bad. Today all politicians know that government control can change drastically in the next election, which gives a lot of hope to the guys out of power that if they slow things down just a little longer they'll achieve their wildest dreams, and a lot of fear for the guys in power that if they don't get what they want today they may not get another chance tomorrow.
      - Veen 9y ago
        I think you have misread what I said. There are brutish, stupid, and venal wreckers at both ends of the political spectrum. There are intelligent, careful, and thoughtful conservatives and socialists. Donald Trump and his followers are not among them. It's only the deeply fucked up political situation in the US that lead to conservatives (those interested in conserving the good that has been achieved) to support a person like Trump. Political effectiveness divorced from thoughtfulness and respect is not desirable.
- ygfvvhygvn 9y ago
  Did you not see the front page of reddit? The Russia scandal was completely gone and there was nothing but confeve memes as far as the eye could see. Don't let your irrational hatred of a man cloud your judgement. The fact that you are so easily duped by such a simple juke... literally 7 jabs of his thumb, should warn you that you need to spend some time in self reflection
  - astronautjones 9y ago
    How relevant do you think the front page of reddit is to reality?
    - ryanx435 9y ago
      A lot it's the 5th largest website in the usa.
      - Noseshine 9y ago
        With a demographic that is the inverse of the "voter turnout by age" graphic though [0]. [0] http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics
      - braderhart 9y ago
        So it is likely to be infiltrated with marketing disguised as news & comments. Lots of agendas. Not sure it is as relevant as you think.
      - luca_ing 9y ago
        Reddit as a whole, sure. The front page itself though? I don't know how others use it, but my frontpage is populated by my favourite subreddits, which are luckily mostly free of politics. TBH I have no idea how the majority use Reddit, but don't confuse the front page with all of Reddit. (As a side note, yesterday I went on /r/The_Donald out of morbid curiosity. I'm not sure what I expected, but it was rather shocking).
- fivestar 9y ago
  The Trump bashing on HN is idiotic. He's not a genius, but he's not stupid, either. I'd put him dead average intelligence-wise. Like all of us, he has his good points and bad. He's human. What I like about him is that he's not a slick, polished, lying politician and you can tell and it matters. He reminds me a lot of Reagan.

origami777 9y ago

That's a best case scenario way to look at this. I agree with you on how this looks to his base, and what it gives other Republicans. We all know his base will support him on anything so that isn't saying much. And the Republican party is going to ride this train to get as much as they can until it crashes. I'm not so sure how it helps him with Europe and China. What are your thoughts there? IMO his foreign relations have been a disaster. I think the only country he has good relations with is Russia. Everyone else is laughing at him. This also continues the polarization of the nation, which, I guess can be good for him but that's still TBD. And only someone with a gold fish's memory would let this distract them from the Russian thing. I tend to cringe whenever intelligence is assigned to the man, but I know that's wrong and I should be more open minded.

fivestar 9y ago
Who is laughing? The Europeans are scared because their lousy, undemocratic union is falling apart.
MadSax 9y ago
Vice, meet Versa.

DiNovi 9y ago

this is super backward; 30% of people approved of pulling out. It doesnt win him any support at all. Shocks me people think these things mean he can read a room.

wernercd 9y ago
I bet it's brought to you by the same polling place that gave Hillary a 96% chance of winning... What percentage of people have a clue of WTF the Paris Agreement is? What effects it will HONESTLY have? The difference between this "Accord" and an actual Treaty? Right now, 99% of what's on the news is My Team vs Your Team. Republicans Defending. Democrats Attacking. No knowledge of what's actually going on. Trump could hire Hillary to replace Comey, create peace in the middle east and give everyone a new car... and the Left would demonize him for all of it.
- elandybarr 9y ago
  Yep. I am in some tech and business world Slack groups where people were similarly ecstatic about the news. Getting out of your own filter bubbles from time-to-time is healthy.
  - DiNovi 9y ago
    your anecdote is the opposite of your recommendation... brain explodes
    - elandybarr 9y ago
      Why? I'm here and in other places with views counter to mine. There are a lot of tech for Trump folks that just keep their heads down at their jobs because they don't want the drama.
      - metafunctor 9y ago
        There are a lot of anti-Trump folks who, too, keep their heads down because they don't want the drama. Or are you suggesting that pro-Trump people are some kind of a silent majority?

fivestar 9y ago

I don't see it that way. I see Trump as a true populist and for the first time in my life I feel like regular people have a voice. Maybe it's all fake, but that's how I see it. Laugh all you want to. Trump has been remarkably consistent in his application of policy so far, despite being called a flip-flopper and all the ridiculous and petty non-scandals that the media and leftist operatives have dreamed up. I'm rooting for the guy. People need to start seeing past their own ideological lens and realize there is more going on than the simplistic narratives and identity politics that the media manipulates the masses with.

rtpg 9y ago

"Trump is so bad he's good" is a tired take at this point. Polling shows that the Russian story is basically resonating with Democrats, but not doing much on the other side of the aisle (granted, Republicans stayed with Nixon up until almost-impeachment...) Paris has broad bi-partisan support. "Let's distract from the Russia issue by something that people actually care about" is not the best strategy is it? Think about the absolutely massive bad press AHCA has generated, combine that with the fact that Paris is only symbolism, and you have a political move with bad optics and no effect on reality. A global minimum if I've seen one (if you have enough cognitive dissonance to think AHCA isn't a massive mess). The problem with "Trump is a political savant" is that it's indistinguishable from the "Trump has severe ADD and just does whatever comes up" narrative. EDIT: check weather.com (at least the US site). When your political move make a meteorological site go full-monty on you, maybe you've generated a couple problems.

aklsjdalksdjk 9y ago
> Polling shows that the Russian story is basically resonating with Democrats, but not doing much on the other side of the aisle (granted, Republicans stayed with Nixon up until almost-impeachment...) what does it matter who is resonates with if there so far is no real evidence of wrongdoing? > The problem with "Trump is a political savant" is that it's indistinguishable from the "Trump has severe ADD and just does whatever comes up" narrative. My guess is that you, like many others, didn't watch his entire speech today nor dissect the reasons he is leaving the non-binding accord. I'd love to hear actual rebuttals on his reasoning rather than tireless critiques of his character. It's old, it's boring, it's why he will win in 2020. He is a bold leader that is making good on his campaign promises, all of them, something I can't remember a single politician doing in my lifetime.
89tweuiojsdk 9y ago
> Polling shows that the Russian story is basically resonating with Democrats, but not doing much on the other side of the aisle (granted, Republicans stayed with Nixon up until almost-impeachment...) What does it matter who is resonates with if there so far is no real evidence of wrongdoing? > The problem with "Trump is a political savant" is that it's indistinguishable from the "Trump has severe ADD and just does whatever comes up" narrative. My guess is that you, like many others, didn't watch his entire speech today nor dissect the reasons he is leaving the non-binding accord. I'd love to hear actual rebuttals on his reasoning rather than tireless critiques of his character. It's old, it's boring, it's why he will win in 2020. He is a bold leader that is making good on his campaign promises, all of them, something I can't remember a single politician doing in my lifetime. Whether or not his policies will manifest in the way he envisions, it's still refreshing.

flexie 9y ago

He didn't acquire a single bargaining chip. If anything, he handed Europe, China, India bargaining chips. Trump is in for a rough time next time he tries to negotiate anything internationally, now when he has shown that he backs out of what many regard as a very important international agreement just 2 years after it was reached. And on yet another issue, Trump shows the world that America is no longer taking the lead. Positioning yourself with Syria and Nicaragua is not taking the lead. He has put America last. And I doubt it will be without repercussions from other nations. In the coming weeks we will see how there will be calls in Europe for blocking America in all kind of other international cooperation, including trade deals.

aaronbrethorst 9y ago
To be fair, Nicaragua only refused to sign on to Paris because they didn't think it went far enough.
nickik 9y ago
> Trump is in for a rough time next time he tries to negotiate anything internationally Yeah because China, India and everybody else are totally willing to sacrifices other deals because they are unhappy about this climate deal. I think you vastly overestimate the importance of this deal to the governments around the world. > And on yet another issue, Trump shows the world that America is no longer taking the lead. He was the first to leave. So he is taking the lead at something.
- rsynnott 9y ago
  > Yeah because China, India and everybody else are totally willing to sacrifices other deals because they are unhappy about this climate deal. It's not a case of unhappiness over this deal. It's a matter of trust. The US pushes for this deal for years, then abruptly abandons it. So, next time the US pushes for a deal, who's going to believe it? This will absolutely increase the caution with which countries reach deals with the US. As it should.
  - nickik 9y ago

glenndebacker 9y ago

"time acquires a bargaining chip with Europe" Yeah good luck with that. Maybe I'm living in a parallel Europe but that is not what I'm reading in the European newspapers this morning. Trump is loathed here and the notion of always cooperating with (our "friend") the US is sinking extremely fast, politically and also in the mind of the general people. I can't comment for all EU countries, but the view of the US is rather negatively here. And honestly why would we? While a lot of EU leaders are publicly outraged, the fact that the US is more and more turning back into the dark ages gives a lot of possibilities for other countries. That void needs and will be filled in by others. For me there is a silver lining here.

candu 9y ago
This. There's no global bargaining chip to be gained here: if anything, the rest of the world has now fully realized that American exceptionalism is in rapid decline. Witness, for instance, the global reaction to Trump's decision, which has essentially been "that's nice, we'll stick with the agreement". This looks less like a savvy political move and more like a petulant child lashing out because Germany stated the US can't be completely trusted anymore. Maybe this will garner some points with his most fervent backers, but that set's growing smaller by the day. The most charitable spin I can think to put on this is that he made an enormously risky bet on a) the rise of populism in Europe and b) the ability of America to cash in on its supposed position of leadership. Turns out a) failed and b) is worth less than we imagined.
- leereeves 9y ago
  > that's nice, we'll stick with the agreement The developing countries that (collectively) expect to receive $100 billion per year under the agreement would stick with it under any conditions. How will that work now? Will Europe be paying that on their own?
ForRealsies 9y ago
>There are several big reasons why Europe's politicians, and career bureaucrats from all over the developed world, love to focus on climate change. First and foremost, it's one of those problems that's hard to define. They even changed the name of the problem from "global warming" to "climate change" to further muddy those waters. In other words, any politician claiming that he's made a dent in the climate change problem is pretty hard to refute while any politician claiming her opponent has failed to make real climate change progress is similarly hard to debunk. Meanwhile, a growing number of career bureaucrats get to keep on "working" for environmental improvements with almost no accountability. Compared to the war on terror, which does demand more tangible results, this is a much more politically pliable issue. For the political class, this is a win/win in perpetuity. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/30/trump-threatens-the-failing-european-political-class-commentary.html http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/30/trump-threatens-the-failing-e...

tanilama 9y ago

> at the same time acquires a bargaining chip with Europe and China that he can cash in later Bargain with your credibility? I don't think that will work, though. One of Trump's strategy is put something that has been agreed upon on the table again, in the name of renegotiation. For other countries, it might be same thing as, blackmailing. How do you know Trump or his successor will play the same trick again and again? Credibility is simply something you cannot game. This will cast a long term shadow on US's reputation if a contract can last no longer than 4 years. Trump's America will still, be treated seriously, not as revered leader, but a unpredictable danger.

_Codemonkeyism 9y ago

I don't think this helps with negotiations or anyone wants to negotiate anything with Trump. The US will be sidelines in all future talks. To Europe and China the US looks like it can't be argued with. For many the US has become a pariah state.

lph 9y ago

Oh, bullshit. We've been hearing about how Trump is playing n-dimensional chess since before the election, but I think it has to be crystal clear by now that he's just a confused old racist with the attention span of a wolverine on speed who is going to do the absolute stupidest thing at every possible opportunity. Yes, he did this to fire up the most rabid corner of his base, but he did so without having any real understanding of the consequences, probably at the behest of Bannon and the Kochs.

davidsong 9y ago
This is inflammatory and contributes very little, it doesn't really belong here.

Melk 9y ago

I expected better from HN. Don't know why really.

rbehrends 9y ago

> acquires a bargaining chip with Europe and China that he can cash in later. Not really. There's nothing that he acquires by leaving a non-binding, aspirational agreement other than burning goodwill in effigy. What this means to the rest of the world is that the US cannot even be assumed to abide by voluntary agreements where it can unilaterally declare how much it actually wishes to contribute. The message that the EU/China are getting is either that they're being given the middle finger for purposes of jingoistic posturing or that Trump doesn't actually understand how the Paris agreement works.