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> I think Texas' situation is too unique. They're effectively a petrostate right now. Conveniently ignoring the fact that California is ALSO a petrostate. htt

• michaelchisari 9y ago
  Yes, California is third on a list where Texas is 1st. I don't think that disproves my point. Texas produces 35% of the country's crude oil. In March of 2017, California produced 14,907,000 barrels of crude oil. Texas produced 102,443,000. That's 7x more. Play that against the fact that Texas' GDP is 2/3rd of California's. Oil has a massive impact in Texas that it simply doesn't have in California.
  • velodrome 9y ago
    Texas and California are diversified economies. Texas is more exposed to the oil & gas industry. However, it is still not a petrostate. Which state is the closest to being a petrostate? Alaska (25% exposure). It is very easy to validate this. Look at the price of oil. It has taken a massive beating over the last years. Oil Price History: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO/ If the state is truly a petrostate, it will clearly be reflected in its GDP. California: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CARGSP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CARGSP Texas: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TXNGSP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TXNGSP North Dakota: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NDNGSP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NDNGSP Alaska: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AKNGSP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AKNGSP Note the massive drop in oil prices after 2014. Alaska's GDP drops around roughly the same period. Now let's compare this to ACTUAL petrostates. Saudi Arabia: https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/gdp Columbia: https://tradingeconomics.com/colombia/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/colombia/gdp Brazil: https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/gdp Norway: https://tradingeconomics.com/norway/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/norway/gdp Mexico: https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/gdp Kuwait: https://tradingeconomics.com/kuwait/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/kuwait/gdp Russia [1]: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp Iran [1]: https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/gdp [1] Sanctions See the shortfall in GDP, that is a PETROSTATE. In March of 2017, California produced 14,907,000 barrels of crude oil. Texas produced 102,443,000. That's 7x more. Play that against the fact that Texas' GDP is 2/3rd of California's. Oil has a massive impact in Texas that it simply doesn't have in California. This is not a good measurement to determine the exposure of the industry to overall economy. It just shows the amount the barrels that can produce. The reason why there is a massive increase in production is due to shale (fracking). The cost of producing oil through fracking is a lot higher than pumping it out of the ground. Because they still have to sell it at market prices, the margin is a lot less for these producers. To compensate for this, these producers have to frack more out of the ground to stay afloat. Shale Exposed Texas Field Production of Crude Oil: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M... North Dakota Field Production of Crude Oil: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPND2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M... Non-Shale Exposed Alaska Field Production of Crude Oil: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPAK2&f=A https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M... California Field Production of Crude Oil: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPCA2&f=A https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...
    • michaelchisari 9y ago
      I forgot that this is the wrong site to use hyperbole on. No, it's not literally a petro-state. I stand by my point that it is not a reproducible model for other states.