4 ms·
These studies have been popping up on HN, and they're all pretty interesting, yet all seem fairly inconclusive to me. This one started in 2011, and I'm guessin
by cbanek 9y ago
These studies have been popping up on HN, and they're all pretty interesting, yet all seem fairly inconclusive to me.
This one started in 2011, and I'm guessing since the article doesn't say they stopped, that it is still going on?
> The report found no evidence for the idea that people will work less under a universal income, and found that in some cases, like in the service industry, people worked more, expanding their businesses or pursuing more satisfying lines of work.
but yet they say:
> The researchers did find that young people — specifically people in their twenties — worked less, but noted that Iran never had a high level of employment among young people, and that they were likely enrolling in school with the added income.
It seems like tracking how many people who are enrolled in school would be fairly easy to track to verify this. They do say in the paper that youth does have a reduced labor rate, but then they say it might be education (but provide no numbers):
> While there is no evidence of a negative supply response for
the average worker, male or female, there is one for youth in their twenties. If one were to
expect a strong negative impact it would be for youth, who have weak job attachment, can stay
in school longer, or enjoy more leisure, though we do know which of these options they choose.
While I do think there's value in looking at the micro circumstances, I do wonder how culture will change and shift because of UBI, and how that will also affect its outcome.
For example, if we say that we believe in UBI, that means that basically everyone should have enough money to live. We're offering an entitlement to which people will feel entitled. Over time, how will that change society?
One past example of this would be college education. Nowadays everyone goes to college, but it wasn't always so. Would as many people to go college if society didn't push them that way? One other such cultural shift might be women entering the workforce, or desegregation, and how that lead toward the fight for civil rights.
- simion314 9y agoSince many things happen in that period this is not a controlled experiment so you can't have strong conclusions, they can notice some correlations at most such as the program did not increased the number of unemployed people, maybe something else balanced this program but this was not found so the authors are challenging others to look at the data and find things that support the idea that unemployment would rise or other bad side effects.