3 ms·
He did indeed! He published an article in the last week that listed 4 outcomes for the election, each with ~25% confidence. 3 Had a Clinton victory and 1 did no
by zaphod12 9y ago
He did indeed! He published an article in the last week that listed 4 outcomes for the election, each with ~25% confidence. 3 Had a Clinton victory and 1 did not. I recall him also making some pretty emphatic condemnations of Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium, arguing that the numbers absolutely did not support PEC's >95% confidence in a Clinton win. Wang, for his part was so confident that he offered to eat a bug if Clinton lost. Wang's statistical method turned out to be a disaster, but he did follow through.
- kobeya 9y agoHaving actually eaten a bug before (yay Boy Scout survival badge), I'm going to remember that one. The follow-through will impress people but it's not actually dangerous or even that unhygenic (as long as you eat the right bug).